I’d like to start this by thanking (flipping the bird to) the millions of fans (two of my a*hole friends) who have emailed in (rudely texted me), asking where this powerhouse sports blog (poorly written hobby) has been all season.  Your support & kind words mean more than you’ll ever know.

In total transparency, I simply didn’t have the time (was way too lazy) to do it this year, and much more importantly, I’ve been in gambling timeout for roughly 90% of the season. Why?  Good question Aguado.  Below, you’ll find a detailed summary of my winnings on the season.

Once again, I let my previous successes (riding Von Miller & a crippled QB to win after win on our way to Super Bowl & gambling immortality last year) fool me into delusions of grandeur, effectively devolving back to asinine parlay after asinine parlay, resulting in $0 balances every other Sunday, one too many trips to the Blackjack section on Sportsbook & the aforementioned (self-imposed, please keep the ‘wife won’t let you gamble’ jokes to a minimum) gambling timeout.

I don’t really believe in New Year’s resolutions, just seems like something fat people do.  But you know what? It’s a great excuse to get back on the wagon, and more importantly – shooter’s shoot.  Seeing as how my squad tried to defend our championship with a junior varsity QB, I figure watching the rest of these games without betting on them would be the metaphorical equivalent of a full month of blue balls. It might start out pretty sweet, but would ultimately end in frustration and heartbreak.

So have I rededicated myself to stats, research, and going with my head over my heart to dig out of this hole?  Of course not.  In the immortal words of Rod Tidwell, I’m all heart motherfucker. I’m either about to go 11-0 in this bish (highly unlikely), or be back in timeout by the Divisional round (highly likely).

TEASE OF THE WEEK

In my post-Super Bowl stupor, I forgot that I won all my money last year by avoiding parlays and investing heavily in every possible tease on the board.  With that in mind, let’s roll two favorites and two dogs – one for each day, so you can let your winnings ride (chase your losses).  I’ll take the Raiders (+9.5) and Seattle (-1.5), and the Giants (+10.5)  and Pittsburgh (-4) for 500 please Alex. Pour a whiskey, thank me later.

On to the picks.  All from Sportsbook as of Thursday.

Raiders (+3.5) over TEXANS

For the life of me, I can’t decide who wins this game.  Shea Serrano at The Ringer, avid Texans fan & world-renowned Glock Osweiler hater, has tee’d it up as the ‘Worst QB Playoff Matchup Ever‘ (if you don’t follow Shea on Twitter, then what are you even doing with your life?).  I’m not even one of the Broncos fans who hates Brock for bouncing on us.  I look at it two ways:

1. The Texans simply outbid us. I mean, let me know next time you’d turn down a raise, especially one for $72 million. Hell, I’d turn on my best friends for a brisket sandwich.  By all means, make your paper boo-boo.
2. We dodged a bullet.  Brock Osweiler isn’t our QB anymore, and that’s a beautiful thing.

I was thinking about taking the Texans, because, you know, Conor Cook has yet to play an NFL game, but then I found this video of Brock throwing passes.

Harrowing, I know. Now we all know how Nuk Hopkins feels every week.  I’m going with the black & silver, Raiders win outright.

Detroit (+7.5) over SEATTLE

This one was tough, because I still operate under the assumption of what I think Seattle is, as opposed to what they really are.  I still picture the best D in the league.  I still picture ol’ Celibate Wilson running amok and beating the Patriots in Foxborough. Then I forget that the last time they played a playoff team, the Packers ball-gagged them 38-10.  And yet, I still want to pick them to go to the Super Bowl.  Again, I’m not good at this.  I see Seattle winning a close game, which obviously means they either lose outright or win by 100.

STEELERS (-10) over Dolphins

Le’veon Bell is like if Barry Sanders & Bob Marley had a baby.  I love that little pothead so much.  I built both of my fantasy teams around him, despite his affinity for the green stuff, suspensions and his rebuilt knee (aka the holy trinity of stay-the-fuck-away).  I spent his epic Week 14 having a full body orgasm while my points piled up, completely ignoring the Donkeys pooping away their season to the Titans.  Here, watch, just make sure you have a towel handy.

They also have this guy (forgiving the fact that he stole the move from Von).

Add that to the fact that this is a revenge game for them, and we got Pitt winning by 14+.  The Steelers are winning the Super Bowl. More on that later.

PACKERS (-4.5) over Giants

I love the Giants if they’re teased to 10.5, but I hate them for anything under 8.  They have literally one play, albeit a beautiful one – toss a slant to OBJ and hope he can score a touchdown before he gets in a fight or tries to sleep with a cheerleader.  He’s like a goddamn gazelle.

Exhibit A:

Exhibit B:

Unfortunately for them, they got this guy …

derp.

… going up against the best QB in the league.

Let’s be honest, probably going to lose most, if not all of these, and not write again until next year.  So let’s just finish out the season.

DIVISIONAL ROUND

PATRIOTS over Conor Cook (Tom Brady likes Donald Trump)

Steelers over CHIEFS (Andy Reid likes hot dogs)

ATLANTA over Seattle (Russell Wilson hates pre-marital sex)

DALLAS over Green Bay (Texas forever)

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

Steelers over PATRIOTS (make sure those balls are regulation)

Falcons over DALLAS (weekly reminder that the Broncos wanted to draft Dak, then traded up for the pirate and started Trevor Siemian for a full season)

SUPER BOWL

Steelers over Falcons (Big Ben -350 over Matty Ice)

And now, only because I’m in full-on degenerate mode … Clemson 31 – Bama 28.  Nick Saban is an asshole.

Smooches.

Last week was an interesting week.  Let’s start with a quick recap:

As the whole point of this endeavor was to see how I’d do picking against the spread, I went a stellar 1-3.  However, this may be a good time to point out that I almost never actually bet on games by the spread.  I’m an absolute sucker for teases & moneyline parlays.  I also hadn’t laid a bet since about week 3.  That all changed Saturday, watching the KC-HOU game with a few buddies and partaking in a few adult beverages.  They both had money on the games, and the jealousy was just too much to bare.  I came out of retirement for an absolute lock of a 2-game moneyline parlay.  The two games I had absolutely the most confidence in for the weekend: Steelers over AJ McCarron & Seattle over the Vikes. Holy f*cking hell. My coming out party involved two of the most insane finishes in NFL history, and cost me roughly seven years on my life.  It came down to Burfict assassinating Antonio Brown on the field and a 90% kicker shanking a 20-yarder.  So what did I do? I let every penny ride on a Bama / Donkeys moneyline parlay. I have a problem.

This week? The lines are atrocious.  I’m pretty sure I have a read on who’s going to win (i.e: not a goddamn clue), but who knows. This league has become a total crapshoot.  The good news? I can’t lose on any of these games, as my whole account is tied up in the Donkeys parlay. The bad news? If the Donkeys lose, my whole account is tied up in the Donkeys parlay. The lesson, as always, I’m an idiot.

TEASE OF THE WEEK:

Last week I advised you to tease all four favorites. I went 3 for 4 after I decided to back Kirk Cousins over Aaron Rodgers, because of course I did.  This week?  I love Donks teased to -3, Seattle to +8 & AZ to -1 (basically picking a winner).  I’ve flip-flopped on the KC/NE game more than I have on Steve Avery’s innocence. You betcha!

On to the lines, all from Sportsbook.com as of 2p MST on Friday.

Chiefs (+5) over CHEATERS

Without a doubt the most confusing game of the week.  Everyone in America sees the Chiefs on an 11-game win streak, coming in to face a banged up Pats squad that just pooped their collective pants for two weeks straight.  I see the Pats playing possum, getting ready to lay waste to Alex Smith & slice some bacon off of Andy Reid’s back.  I think Pats win, but I’m leaning closer to an inch than a mile. Then again, there’s always the possibility of this:

CARDINALS (-7) over Packers

I knew it, I knew it, I fucking knew it. The NFC East was hot trash, and we had Kirk Cousins going up against my hetero life-mate Aaron Rodgers. What did I do? Took the goddamn DC Racists. Not intelligent.  However, that was the Racists.  This is a juggernaut of a Cardinals squad who beat the Pack by 30 points three weeks ago.  Rodgers is an angel, but the Pack is flawed. Unless Carson Palmer blows out his knee between now & Saturday (don’t rule it out), the birds roll.

Seahawks (+2) over PANTHERS

This one hurts. It hurts real bad. I feel like I’m turning my back on family here. This has been, and may very well still be, the year of Cam. To further that point, I traded him from my fantasy team in week 2 because I had ARod, and then lost to him in the finals, and I wasn’t even really that mad. I’ve spent most of the season arguing with friends who think he’s going to flame out, telling them he’s the future.  He’s my favorite NFL player (non Von Miller division), and he’s been doing it with Ted ‘Hot Hands’ Ginn Jr (pictured below).

When the Titans got mad about him dancing, he dropped this gem:

“I heard somebody say we aren’t going to allow you to do that, but if you don’t want me to do it, then don’t let me in,” Newton said, via Terry McCormick of Titans Insider. “I just like doing it. It’s not to be boastful. From the crowd’s response, they like seeing it. … No disrespect to anybody, it’s just a Panthers thing.”

1. Great point. If you don’t want me dancing, don’t let me score. That’s just good old fashioned logic.
2. Of course you meant to be boastful. Otherwise, you’re going straight Christian McCaffrey when you score and simply thanking the Father.

All of this is to say that I think Seattle wins.  I picked a Denver – Seattle Super Bowl to start the season, and it’s still in play. And yes, I feel like a shit picking Celibate Wilson over Dab Newton, but it is what it is.

DONKEYS (-7.5) over Steelers

This line went from (-7) this morning, to (-9) when the news on Antonio Brown broke, back down to (-7) and looks like it’s finally settled at (-7.5).  At (-9), I had the Steelers. Yes, I think we win (I NEED us to win, both emotionally & financially), but 9 seemed like too much.  Even without AB, I figured it would be a decent game.  However, I just had two lunch beers, and now I see Donks by at least a TD, so I’ll eat that extra half point.  I’ll probably regret it when Manning gets decapitated in the 3rd quarter & I remember that Brock has a sprained MCL and Elway has to stop chain smoking and hitting on teenagers so he can take some snaps.  I hate gambling. Go Donkeys.

Wild Card Round: 1 – 3

Season: 65 – 65 – 4

This was the year, I swore to myself.  This year, I’m picking every single game against the spread – not just as a way to prove to myself what a prophetic (horrendous) gambler I am, but really just as much as an excuse to make myself write & get to throw insults & jokes at people much more successful than me with no real repercussion.  As I’m sure all my loyal readers remember, I made it through Week 9, just barely past the halfway point.  Coincidentally, my Week 9 picks put me at just over .500 on the season.  My effort & my talent, it seems, mirror each other – barely this side of half-assed.  There are excuses, most of which are legitimate (moved states, changed not just jobs but careers, I’m lazy, continued the equally arduous yet rewarding long-distance girlfriend dance, the holidays, I’m lazy…), but you know what they say – excuses are like _______.

But all is not lost!  In the last edition of the World’s Greatest (*worst) Picks (TM pending), I relegated my goals for the season from gambling immortality to that of Mr. Cooper & Ms. Lawrence below:

First place became unnecessary.  I simply wanted a completion ribbon to put on my proverbial wall of Gaylord.

If (when) I finish this season with a winning record, I’ll make what will amount to a combination of both of their faces, and possibly (probably) do a naked lap around the block.

As it sits, I’m 64 – 62 – 4. Yes, I completely blew off seven weeks of the season, in which it’s very likely I would’ve dipped below .500.  It’s also just as likely I reverted to John Anthony status and went undefeated, we’ll never know.  So I sit two games up with eleven left to go.  The most fun eleven.  I’d say I’m confident I’m about to go 11-0, but I’m picking three road teams, one of which is lead by Andy Reid & Alex Smith, and the goddamn Washington Racists.  I could very possibly go 0-4, or I could be one-week closer to the aforementioned naked lap around the block.  Sorry babe, rules is rules.  Only one way to find out.

TEASE OF THE WEEK:

If I actually had any money to gamble with, I’d tease all four favorites six ways from Sunday, then go straight to Vegas.

As always, all lines from Sportsbook.com.

Chiefs (-3.5) over TEXANS

In my first real regret of the column, I’ve decided to ride with Alex Smith and ol’ clock mismanagement himself, Andy Reid.  In my defense, I’d bet only 15-20% of NFL fans could even name the Texans QB.  I just hope JJ Watt doesn’t go Nelson Muntz and start throwing touchdowns to himself.  I’d also love another shot to destroy the Chiefs dreams in the playoffs.  Fun fact: the Chiefs D was my highest scoring fantasy player throughout the playoffs, and I took 2nd place. So there’s that. There’s also this.

Big Ben (-3) over AJ MCCARRON

I’ve always had a bit of a soft spot for the Steelers (pretty sure we can blame that on Kordell Slash Stewart), but this year went into full-on lady boner mode.  If I hadn’t already dedicated my life to Jennifer Lawrence, I’d definitely dedicate it to Antonio Brown. Not sure there’s any other option for an of-age, football loving, American male.

The only possible hiccup here is that Deangelo Williams is out, and they’re now on their 3rd string RB – a guy named Fitzgerald Toussaint, whom you just googled to make sure I wasn’t straight making him up.

AJ MCCARRON’S WIFE (-14.5) over Big Ben’s Wife

the only defensible reason to ever root for Alabama.

jk. totes not his wife, but goddamn what a sex offender.

Seahawks (-5.5) over VIKINGS

I’ve been clowning Russell Wilson all year for being a right-wing religious nutjob who thinks water can prevent concussions.  I’d say that’s fair.  I’d also say maybe he’s onto something. In his last seven games, he’s gone for a Madden-esque 24 TDs & 1 pick. Over those same seven games, the Seahawks have gone 6-1 while outscoring their opponents 224 – 98 (including a 38-7 ball-gagging of these same Vikings on national TV).  Gun to my head, I’m picking them to win the Super Bowl, and I just had to punch myself in the face for typing that sentence.

DC RACISTS (-1) over Packers

This one was hands down the hardest, as I literally had to go against every ounce of intuition I have.  On one hand, Aaron Rodgers. On the other, Kirk Cousins. One of these things is not like the other things.  The Racists are decent, and the Packers just aren’t. Can’t wait for the Pack to win by 20. *sigh*

Week 9: 6 – 7

Season: 64 – 62 – 4

As we cross the halfway mark of the season, the realization of exactly how hard it is to pick against the spread every week continues to grow on me.  After continuing my trend of ‘good week / bad week’ with a 5-9 pupu platter last week, I sit a mere three games above .500.  THREE!  After knocking out weeks of 13-3 & 11-5 earlier in the year, I must admit, I did not see this coming.  So I have reevaluated my goals, and now wish to simply keep my head above the proverbial water.  In thinking of how to emphasize this with a pop culture analogy, I do believe I found the perfect pairing.

A few things about this scene. First, this was the movie that made me realize I needed to dedicate the rest of my life to Jennifer Lawrence.  She’s an angel. Second, just an immaculate dance all-around. I can’t wait to recreate it at my own wedding someday.  Finally, and the point that I’m really getting at here – just look at the complete and utter euphoria on these faces.

You’d think they just won the lotto. But no, that’s simply their reaction to receiving a 5 out of a possible 10 from the stuck-up judges. And why? Because they’re realists. They knew they weren’t going to stack up against the professional Russian ballerinas they were competing against and set expectations accordingly.  If (when) I finish this season with a winning record, I’ll make what will amount to a combination of both of their faces, and possibly (probably) do a naked lap around the block.

This is what we’ve come to.

TEASE OF THE WEEK:

Boy oh boy do we have some contenders this week.  My absolute favorites: Denver to a pick (no way PFM loses in his likely last trip to Indy), Rams to +8 (Todd Gurley isn’t human), Bears to +10 (more on them below).  If you’re not happy with those, go Raiders +10.5 (as mentioned, they’re like a real-life football team these days. It’s crazy.) & Bucs to +8.5 (the love affair continues).

On to the picks. All lines as of 6pm MST Wednesday night.

BENGALS (-11.5) over Browns

(editor’s note: per the usual, I’m too lazy to get this out Thursday, but I actually got this one right)

Simmons used to be so bad at picking these Thursday night dumpster fires that he named them his ‘Skunk of the Week’, affectionately comparing his horrendous picks to spraying said team with his stink.  I’m not sure what would be worst than that, but whatever it is, that’s me. I haven’t just been wrong the last three weeks, I’ve picked the losing side of absolute curb-stompings. That said, I think Cincy rolls … but then again, it’s the glorious return of Johnny Football. Life is more fun with Johnny Football in it. There are lots of things one would do with a rolled up $20 that aren’t illegal. Lots.

Raiders (+4.5) over STEELERS

I’d like to take this opportunity to observe a moment of silence for Le’veon Bell, and with him all of my fantasy football hopes & dreams. I hate fantasy, I hate it so fucking much.

JETS (-7.5) over Jaguars

Jets getting their pants pulled down as heavy favorites to the Raiders + the Jaguars being a terrible football team = Jets winning by 20. It’s science.

Rams (+2) over VIKINGS

Last week, I told myself I was done picking against the Vikes. They even backed up my sentiment by beating Da Bears on the road. And yet, I can’t shake the notion in my head that they’re still not very good, whereas I think the Rams are actually kind of decent. Rams win outright.

BILLS (-3) over Dolphins

Can’t wait to not watch one minute of this game.

SAINTS (-9) over Titans

Another great candidate for a tease here, especially if Brees’ mojo sticks around for a few more weeks. If that mojo could go to Ben Watson & CJ Spiller, that would just be great. For everybody.

PATRIOTS (-14) over DC Racists

The only game I plan on picking against the Pats the rest of the year is when they come to Denver. You like that?

Packers (-3) over PANTHERS

It seems to be an accepted fact that quarterback is the hardest position to play in all of professional sports.  Coincidentally, there are a shit ton of horrendous QBs in the NFL.  320 million people in this country, and we can’t find 32 decent QBs? It absolutely boggles the mind.  Guys like Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, anyone named McCown, anyone who’s started for the Texans this year …. these are guys that keep my ‘I could’ve played NFL QB if I would’ve applied myself’ fantasy alive.  But then you look at Cam Newton, and I’m like ‘nah’. To wit:

Seriously, watch that again.  He’s like JJ Watt crossed with pre-dogfight Mike Vick crossed with a cheetah, and probably wins the MVP if we were to vote today. And yet, I feel like Rodgers comes out for blood after being humiliated by the Orange Crush last Sunday night.

Falcons (-7) over BLAINE GABBERT

Quick recap for my 9er fans out there: Kaep was so bad, they decided to go with Yo Gabba Gabba and his career stats of 23 TDs, 24 picks and a whopping 66.8% rating. That would make him the 46th ranked QB on the year. There are 32 teams. Again, we have a QB crisis on our hands.

BUCS (+2.5) over Giants

My unwavering belief in Famous Jameis & Doug Martin baffles me too. Jameis forever.

Broncos (-6) over COLTS

Full transparency: against the Packers last week, my one goal was to not get blown out. I thought we could keep it close, possibly even steal a W, I just really, really, really didn’t want to get embarrassed on national TV.  We proceeded to rack up more penalty yards (93) than ARod had passing yards (77). We dominated the best team in the NFC in absolutely every facet of the game, and, and, and … now I believe we can win the Super Bowl. Goddamnit. Every year.

Eagles (-3) over COWBOYS

In the immortal words of Sidney Dean, I only have four words for you: fuck the NFC East. No matter what you do this week, stay away from this game.

Bears (+4) over CHARGERS

Can’t wait for the Chargers to have to go to a silent count to deal with the 50,000 Bears fans in attendance, get down by 30 points, and then score three garbage time TDs at the end to make it appear respectable to anyone who wasn’t watching the actual game. God, the Chargers suck. Bears win outright.

Last Week: 5 – 9

Season: 58 – 55 – 4

These intro / recaps have become a verifiable rollercoaster of emotions.  I’m either Scrooge McDucking my ass around my moneybin, or falling victim to all types of prison rape & hydrogen bombs. It’s a lot to take in week-to-week.  What I needed was a nice, steady, under-the-radar comeback.  Something to get me back on track without attracting the attention of the feds.  So I kept it low-key and banged out a nice 8-5.

Baby steps.

TEASE OF THE WEEK:

I give you four absolute locks here (which obviously means all four fail, but I digress): Lions +10 (Alex Smith couldn’t beat my mom by 10), Vikes +6 (Cutler couldn’t beat your mom by 6), Raiders +9 (Fitzpatrick couldn’t beat his own mom by 9), Panthers -1 (no more mom jokes, the Colts just suck).

With that, on to the picks. Once again, straight from Sportsbook.com as of 5:00pm MST Thursday afternoon.

Miami (+8.5) over PATRIOTS

[Editor’s note: wrote this last night]  I’d bet my life that the Pats win this game, but they somehow keep letting every dogshit team they play get backdoor covers in the 4th quarter. It’s infuriating, and I’m pretty sure it’s just Belicheat trolling all of us. He’s the worst.

[Editor’s note: I’ve taken four straight L’s on these Thursday night atrocities.]

Lions (+4) over CHIEFS

This feels like a 14-13 game to me. Even if the Chiefs were on their way to covering, Andy Reid would get distracted by the hotdog guy, call an inadvertent timeout, and let Detroit score a garbage time TD. Either that or Megatron is fumbling at the one yard line. Either way.

Vikings (Pick) over BEARS

Ever since the Vikes got rolled by San Fran on the opening Monday Night of the season, I’ve picked against them every week – and lost.  You know what? I’ve had enough. They go into Chicago and light up Smokin’ Jay.  Vikes win outright.

Bucs (+7.5) over FALCONS

I love, love, love me some Doug Martin. You know what I don’t love? His weak ass nickname. How is a full-grown American male going to call himself the Muscle Hamster? I just picture fat rodents dancing to shit rap music during Kia commercials. But you know what I read this week? The Dougernaut. Now that, my friends, is a motherfucking nickname. Dougernaut and the Bucs keep this respectable.

SAINTS (-3.5) over Giants

I’m too lazy to go back and check, but pretty sure I’ve been wrong about both of these teams in every game they’ve played this year. I’m taking the home team, but I hate them both, and wouldn’t touch this game with a 50-ft pole.

49ers (+8.5) over RAMS

I know, I know, I know. The 9ers would probably trade Kaepernick for a brisket sandwich and a handshake right about now. The Seahawks just pooped on their chest, in their OWN HOUSE, on national TV. All signs point to a verifiable dumpster fire. And yet, I don’t see the Rame beating a division rival by more than 5 or 6. I’ll eat these words. Whatever. SF friends, cheer up – it’s NBA season. Every time Kaep throws a pick, just watch some Steph highlights.

Cardinals (-6.5) over BROWNS

Every bone in my body says tease the f*ck out of this game. Yet recent history says the Cards have f*cked me out of roughly $1,000 and two suicide pools. I hate gambling.

Bengals (+1.5) over STEELERS (if Ben sits)

Landry Jones is not an NFL quarterback.

STEELERS (-1.5) over Bengals (if Ben plays)

Ben Roethlisberger IS an NFL quarterback.

RAVENS (-3.5) over LA Chargers

Ladies and gentleman, the battle for the #1 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.

Titans (+3.5) over TEXANS

To recap, the Texans just: lost by ~700 to the Dolphins, lost their best offensive player to a torn achilles, cut their part-time starter / part-time backup QB because he couldn’t make the team flight and had to ride coach to the game. So they obviously deserve to be favored by 3.5. Derp.

RAIDERS (+3) over Jets

As I’ve mentioned a few times – the Raiders have sucked – I mean really, really SUCKED – for so long, that it’s hard to even dislike them. It’s to the point that I’m even sort of, kind of, somewhat legitimately excited for them to have CARR BOMBS to Amari Cooper. That’s like a real-life football play. He’s a freak, and I’m scared of him. Raiders win outright.

Seahawks (-6.5) over COWBOYS

BREAKING: Dez Bryant had a great day of practice. BREAKING: Matt Cassel is throwing to him. Seahawks win by at least two TDs.

Packers (-3) over BRONCOS

My love affair with Aaron Rodgers has been well chronicled in this space. He’s like a John Elway – Steve Young – Jesus hybrid, and it’s terrifying. Conversely, I love my Donkeys, but I have absolutely zero explanation as to what in the Sam Hell is going on with our offense. Is it Kubiak? I don’t know. I do know that insisting on Peyton running naked bootlegs is about as intelligent as trusting your daughter on prom night. Is it Peyton? I don’t know. I do know that every time he throws a pass, it’s a straight coin flip as to whether it’s going to be a dart or a duck.

I was thinking about all of that, and then I saw this.

BRONCOS (+3) over Packers

Von Miller is the greatest. Orange Crush for life. I apologize.

PANTHERS (-7) over Colts

Ways the Colts have fucked me this year, ranked:

1. Ruining my tease in week 2
2. Refusing to pass the ball to Andre Johnson, whom I told anyone who would listen was going to blow up this year.
3. Tricked me into spending $7 on Ahmad Rashad Bradshaw on my fantasy waiver wire.

As Joey Tribbiani would say: Panthers – good, Colts – bad.  And yes, I’m so bad at picks, that I’ve resorted to Friends clips.

Last Week: 8 – 5

Season: 53 – 46 – 4

This year Halloween fell on a weekend, me and Geto Boys were trick-or-treatin.

As always, a quick recap of last week:

First, let’s back up.  I decided to embark on this little endeavor of picking every game, every week, for two reasons:

• Writing is a ton of fun and this gave me a relevant weekly topic about something I already cared about.
• I kind of, sort of, actually honestly thought I’d do really well, and thus have it as public record to rub in my friends’ faces.

Turns out, that second reason may turn into one hell of a backfire. 4-9-1 last week, bringing me within four small games of falling below .500 for the first time all year. To try and snap out of this funk, I thought we’d try something new.  After I post these each week, I can count on several snarky texts from friends ridiculing my most current masterpiece (dumpster fire).  Of those, the most common is my buddy Chris, who for all intents & purposes is the person most responsible for my favorite addiction.  So I asked him to write either a rebuttal or an agreement to each of my picks.  All of his responses are below in blue italics, without edit or retort from me.  I just gave them a quick glance (because, who gives a shit what he has to say, right?), and it seems as if he’s tried to incorporate some extremely novel ideas here, such as ‘research’ and ‘stats’ and ‘rational thought’.  Interested to see how those work out.

But first:

TEASE OF THE WEEK:

Despite the hydrogen bomb that was my week, my TOTW still hit.  That’s three weeks in a row, so jump on board America.  This week, I offer up the 49ers, Bills & the Lions.  Let it eat.

On to the picks.  All from Sportsbook as of Wednesday.

49ERS (+6.5) over Seattle

To recap: were it not for a miraculous last-second play by Kam Chancellor against the Lions, the Seahawks would be 1-5, after having lead in the 4th quarter of all five of those losses.  Instead, they’re 2-4, while that same stat holds true.  Now, I get that Kaepernick is the NFL Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde, but Seattle should be giving 6.5 on the road to a hated division rival because why?

49ERS (+6.5) over Seattle

I should start off by saying I am the one responsible for Crane’s sports gambling degeneracy. I’m like the man who gave Picasso a paintbrush, Mozart a piano, or Walter White a chemistry set. I’m sorry I’m not sorry.

I hate to agree right off the bat but c’mon. Aren’t the Niners just the poor man’s Panthers? Division rival, at home, and you’re giving me 6.5 points in a game where the over / under is 42?! It doesn’t matter if the Niners lose the rest of their games and move to Santa Clara (errr wait), they’ll be hype for this one. Seattle 21 Santa Clara 17.

Bills (-5.5) over JAGS (in London)

You’ve got to love that we claim we want to broaden the appeal of the NFL in England (Europe, really), but continue to do so by sending them the worst possible games on the docket. Nothing says ‘new fan’ like ‘come watch EJ Manuel & Blake Bortles duke it out in the rain’.  As to my pick – Jim Kelly himself went to the press this week to ask Rex to unleash the hounds. I think they roll.

Bills (-5.5) over JAGS (in London)

I don’t know what you’re talking about. This game is so good that you can only watch it live streamed on Yahoo. That’s like having the halftime show presented by AOL. 80% of the money is on the Bills, the Bills have numerous difference makers banged up, but you know what? If any team gets shut out this week, it’s the Jags in this game. I’m going against every gambling rule I have and giving the points.

RAMS (-6) over Browns

As of this writing, it’s pretty much dead even between the Rams and the DC Racists on who’s going to fuck me harder this season.  As such, and in respect to surefire HOF’er Josh McCown, I will being staying miles & miles away from this game.  However, Todd Gurley might be Bo Jackson crossed with a young Biggie Smalls, and I see them covering.

Browns (+6) over RAMS

Fun fact: Joe Haden led NFL jersey sales for a couple weeks this season. Who is buying all the Joe Haden jerseys?! My conspiracy theory: it’s the closest thing you can get to a Lebron James football jersey. Guess what else? Haden’s back this week. Oh and the Rams only scored 10 points against the Redskins.

DOLPHINS (-4.5) over Texans

Remember my first year of sports gambling?  It was when I fell in love with the Tajh Boyd / Sammy Watkins / Nuk Hopkins Clemson squad that just kept winning as outright underdogs, made me a fortune, and tricked me into thinking gambling on football was easy.  That, as it turns out, was not the truth.  Anyway, are we sure Sammy was better than Nuk?  I submit exhibit A;

As to the line – I can see either team winning by 20, so I’ll pass, thank you.

Texans (+4.5) over DOLPHINS

I could never forget your love affair with Clemson, or the fact you thought Vince Young would be a viable NFL quarterback, or that JJ Reddick was the second coming of Larry Bird. OR you thought the Dolphins would lose to the Titans straight up. What’s changed? The Texans have only looked bad in their game against the Falcons. Besides Ryan Tannehill is the only QB that can “lose a locker room” of the team that was investigated last year for literally torturing one another. ***Side bet – The curse of Richie Incognito is real. The Dolphins will never win a Super Bowl again.

look at this maniac.

Jets (+9) over PATS

I can’t believe the Pats let some dude named Griff Whalen hit them with the dreaded backdoor cover.  Luckily, I didn’t bet a dollar on this game, but I told anyone who would listen that the Pats were winning by 40, and I delivered this message with the zeal of Ray Lewis at a deer antler convention.  I may have cost some folks some money, and I apologize.  Rooting for the Pats was like rooting for ISIS.  Griff fucking Whalen.

Jets (+9) over PATS

I’m actually shocked at how many times we’ve agreed thus far. The Pats are scoring 36.6 ppg. and the Jets are holding opponents to 15 ppg. Classic O vs. D game. I can’t help but think that Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis are alien life forms that were sent here on the sole mission to stop the Patriots WR’s. Nobody stops Gronk but David Harris aint exactly getting’ “thrown out the club” either.

LIONS (+3) over Vikings

I think both of these teams are trash, but it seems like the Lions remembered they can just throw 60 yard bombs to Megatron ten times a game, so I’ll take the home dog ML, especially because I have to root for Stafford in fantasy this week.

Vikings (-3) over LIONS

This is the game that only a true degenerate bets on. Needless to say I’ve already locked in the Vikings -3(even). The Vikings secondary is sneaky good and the Lions biggest weakness? Stopping the run.

Falcons (-5) over TITANS

Well I know you’ve got a perma-chub for Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds, so I’ll just go ahead and agree with you here.  Julio could probably play QB and just throw the ball to himself in this game, and they’d still win.

Falcons (-5) over TITANS

Crane well knows the Falcons are the crazy ex-girlfriend I keep coming back to. I quit them for a little while but then all of a sudden they just look so HOT. That and I’m secretly the only person on the planet praying that Marcus Mariota falls flat on his face. #Jameis #Crablegs

Bucs (+3.5) over the RACISTS

I finally decided to believe in the Racists’ ability to cover all spreads last week, so what did they do?  Get blown out by Ryan Fitzpatrick.  So after a splendid bye-week, my completely indefensible love affair with Jameis & the Muscle Hamster continues.  I kind of want to take them ML here. Please talk me out of it.

Bucs (+3.5) over the RACISTS

Did you read my last paragraph? I think the Bucs can hang with any team that won’t force Jamies to throw INT’s and for some reason after seeing what DeAndre Hopkins did to Deangelo Hall on Hard Knocks, I’m thinking Mike Evans might catch a pass or ten.

COLTS (-5) over Saints

The Saints have gotten blown out on the road twice this year by soft teams that air the ball out: 31-19 to AZ & 39-17 to the Eagles.  I see that happening again here, especially with the return of Ahmad Rashad Bradshaw, fantasy team savior. And yes, I do realize I’m picking the team that pulled this shit while only down six points at home …

… that elicited this face from the dingus who called the play.

COLTS (-5) over Saints

I bet this game immediately when the line posted. I actually gave 5.5 and still feel good about it. The Falcons were due for a loss and letdowns don’t necessarily come against good teams. The Saints are exactly the kind of squad that lets Stella get her groove back. Especially if Stella is a 6’5’’giant with a neck beard. Not to mention the Saints Defensive Coordinator is the football equivalent of Billy Baldwin.

Raiders (+4) over CHARGERS

Just read a great stat that says the Chargers are playing their third (THIRD!!!) game in 14 days, while the Raiders are coming off of their bye week.  Furthermore, the Chargers are not good at football.

Raiders (+4) over CHARGERS

I like the way this Raiders team is headed. The Chargers are the first team in NFL history that has a home field disadvantage and my bold prediction…Woodson picks another and they run the highlight of him flashing the Heisman. Raiders win this game straight up.

GIANTS (-4) over Cowboys

Apparently Dallas is starting Matt Cassel this weekend, so let’s take a moment of silence to acknowledge the three straight weeks we got to bet against Brandon Weeden.

Cowboys (+4) over GIANTS

I don’t care if Jamarcus Russell is starting for the Cowboys after ingesting a full bottle of lean. Tom Coughlin is the first coach to prohibit run plays. The historically potent Giants offense hasn’t shown signs of fireworks since JPP’s 4^th of July party. Too soon? Cowboys control the line of scrimmage and lose by a FG.

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Eagles

Last week I said Carolina was essentially Cam, Greg Olsen, and then Cam once more for good measure.  They then went out and pretty much beat Seattle by themselves.  I love Cam so much.  He’s everything I wanted Vince Young to be.  Seriously, look how open Olsen is on this game winner.  Simmons brought it up this week, but are we sure Seattle’s D is still that hard?  I have my suspicions.

Eagles (+3.5) over PANTHERS

Overrated vs. Overachieving and I think you answered your own question. Was the Seattle victory something for the Panthers to hang their hat on? I don’t think so. The Vegas Power Rankings as reported by ESPN have the Panthers tied as the 12^th best team in the league. The Eagles? 7^th. I’ll take the field goal and a half…actually scratch that let’s ride the money line.

CARDS (-7.5) over Ravens

Baltimore is a few shanked kicks away from being 0-6, and I think a pretty good Cardinals team is out for blood after getting dressed down by the immortal Landry Jones last week.  That said, I’ve LOVED the Cards twice this year, and they’ve lost outright both times. You figure it out.

Ravens (+7.5) over CARDS

I can’t figure this Cardinals team out. What’s so good about ‘em? Why is everyone on their jock and how the hell do they keep winning? Their best skill position player is Andre Ellington? Here are three speed ratings in Madden 16. Can you guess the players?

• Player A: 83
• Player B: 82
• Player C: 81

Answers in order: Blaine Gabbert, Larry Fitz, Christian Ponder. If Madden has given up on him then I have too. Cards win this game but I’m not giving more than a TD to Carson Palmer unless I absolutely have to. (Bengals fans nodding solemnly).

Last Week: 4 – 9 – 1

Season: 45 – 41 – 4

Every now and again, it’s important to take a long hard look in the mirror and realize you might need a little gambling timeout.  Just a little T-O. During what is now being widely regarded as the Gambling Armageddon of 2015 Week 4 (**editors note: pretty sure it’s just me calling it that, whatever), I lost all but $50 of my SB account because the supposed juggernaut, Super Bowl contending Cardinals of Arizona couldn’t beat the immortal Nick Foles at home. So what did I do? I obviously got bored at work on Monday, opened up the casino feature on SB (**editors note: DON’T EVER, EVER, EVER DO THIS), got that up to about $120, and then promptly ran it down to $0.54 (yes, cents), all in the span of about seven minutes. I really started to think I might be John Anthony, and then I got metaphorically peed on in the park.  So yeah, time for a timeout.

Per the usual, all of the games I really liked hit, and I was left to rue my lack of control and unbelievably unhealthy fetish for teasers & parlays.  The good news is that I made all my picks from a balcony in Cabo after a full day of an open bar and still went 7 – 6 – 1. The lesson here, as always – all things in moderation.

TEASE OF THE WEEK:

Last week I told you to tease the Broncos & Steelers. I hope you did that. Then I said toss in the Ravens if you were feeling frisky. I hope you were not feeling frisky. This week, it’s the heavy favorites whom I see winning by a combined 1,000 points or so – Packers & Pats, both (-10.5). And again if you’re trying to get loose, throw in the Donkeys at (-4.5).

On to the picks, all from Sportsbook as of 3:00pm PST, Thursday afternoon.

Falcons (-3.5) over SAINTS

Had to re-write what I had here, as I picked the Falcons, and they immediately got blown out.  This whole division is trash, and I’m already down 0 – 1 on the week. Sonofabitch.

Broncos (-4.5) over BROWNS

Just watch this clip.

Von Miller is my favorite Bronco since Steve Atwater, and it’s not even particularly close. Seriously. Watch it again. He okie-dokes that lineman so hard it looks like he just passes out, sacks Carr with some sort of flying feet-first death leap, strips and corrals the ball all in one sexual motion, then high-steps his ass off the field like a goddamn high school band leader. Just beautiful.  Our offense is obviously still atrocious, but we’re 4 – 1 ATS, and about to break poor Josh McCown into a million tiny pieces. Tease the f*ck out of this game.

Bengals (-3.5) over BILLS

I picked the Bills here originally just by default, as I still can’t get off my attraction to them. Then I took a gander at the injury report and promptly flipped the switch. If Tyrod can’t play, we’re probably looking at EJ Manuel. Furthermore your honor, I actually believe in these Bengals after their comeback on Seattle last week.  This obviously means Andy Dalton reminds us all he’s Andy Dalton and the Bills roll. Sigh.

VIKINGS (-4) over Chefs

I was trying to think of a humorous way to discuss the shockingly sad tailspin the Chefs find themselves in, and although it has nothing to do with football, this is what I came up with:

Before Michael Jordan and John Elway, Kit Cloudkicker was legit my childhood idol. That show was dope.

JAGUARS (-1) over Texans

Here’s a fun game – side-by-side stats of a surefire HOF QB and a total punchline:

QB1: 108-189, 1,299 yards, 10 TDs, 4 picks, 87.2 QBR

QB2: 120-189, 1,234 yards, 6 TDs, 7 picks, 77.3 QBR

The first is Blake Bortles. The second is Peyton Manning. Blake fucking Bortles.

Bears (+3) over LIONS

I really wanted to go with Detroit in this one, as it’s hard to picture them going 0 – 6, but then I remembered that last week the Lions decided Dan Orlovsky gave them a better chance than Matthew Stafford.  Good luck with that.

The Washington Racists (+6) over JETS

For the life of me, I can’t get a read on the Racists. They’ve ruined suicide pools, fantasy teams, teases, picks, dinners, a graduation, an interview, one wedding and supposedly one presidential election (that I know about). So I’m just going to take my points here.

Cards (-4) over STEELERS**

I like the Cards to cover four here if** Big Ben stays on the sideline.  In that scenario, we get an opportunistic Arizona defense ripping Old Yeller to shreds while Le’Veon tries to win the game all by himself. That worked against the hapless Chargers, it won’t work here.  If he plays, this maybe goes to a pick-em, in which case I’m staying the f*ck away.

TITANS (-2) over Dolphins

The last two Dolphins anyone gave a shit about were Snowflake and Ray Finkle. What do I know about Ray Finkle?

Carolina (+7) over SEAHAWKS

I believe that Seattle is a much, MUCH better team here. Carolina is 4 – 0, but their opponents are a combined 5 – 20 and their offense consists of Cam, Greg Olsen & Cam once more. Yet, I see this is one of those classic Seattle 13-10 snoozefests.

PACKERS (-10.5) over Chargers

During last Monday’s game when the Chargers were choking away the game to the Steelers, Rivers had to go to a silent count because the Pittsburgh fans were so loud. This was IN San Diego. Good luck in Santa Monica next year fellas.  As to the game – can’t stop now, ride the Packers until the wheels fall off.

49ERS (+2.5) over Ravens

So the 49ers take the Giants to the wire in New York, while the Ravens poop their pants and let Josh McCown throw for 457 yards and upset them at home. Obviously, this makes the Ravens road favorites flying all the way to the west coast. 49ers ML all day.

Patriots (-10.5) over COLTS

The latest, and I’d wager greatest, stop on the ‘Fuck You, I’m Tom Brady‘ revenge tour.  Obviously nobody on the Colts has seen The Wire, or else they’d know that snitches get stitches. They couldn’t make this line high enough.

Giants (+3.5) over EAGLES

I have absolutely zero read on either of these teams, so I took the Giants because I’ve taken way too many favorites this week.  That’s really the only reason. Stay away, stay away, stay away.

Last Week: 7 – 6 – 1

Season: 41 – 32 – 3

DISCLAIMER***: I write all of this from the below balcony in Cabo. My expert analysis might be slightly diluted by the Mexican fire water. It’ll get ‘ya.

Anyway, back to football and gambling.  Despite the fact that I know anyone reading this has been a loyal reader all season, I’ll provide the weekly recap of my prior transgressions (it’s been a bit of a roller coaster):

Week 1: 12 – 3 – 1

Week 2: 6 – 10

Week 3: 11 – 5

In full transparency, I may have started drinking my own kool-aid. It was like Vegas was messing with me. Staring me down with a spear. You know what I told Vegas? The same thing any self-respecting man would. I have the reflexes of a cat, and the speed of a mongoose. So go ahead, throw it. And what did they do?

They hit me with the fucking spear.  I went 5 – 9 – 1 (I threw out the Colts, as I picked before Andrew the Giant got hurt). It was shaping up to be the year of the favorite, but as always – if it seemed to good to be true, it probably was. It all would’ve been fine if the Cardinals would’ve just won the game. But if if’s and but’s were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas (sigh).

The more important thing to acknowledge here is that if (IF!!!) we have a pattern, then this week is full speed ahead.

TEASE OF THE WEEK:

Last week I tee’d up seven teams to tease, and five of them panned out. Not bad, but also not exactly the ‘tease of the week’.  Roll with the Broncos (-5) & Steelers (+3.5). Throw in the Ravens (-6.5) if the Browns continue to ostracize Johnny Football.

On to the picks. Again, all spreads from Sportsbook, as of 4:00pm Cabo San Lucas time Thursday afternoon.

HOUSTON (+1.5) over Indy

You can’t help but feel bad for The Giant.  That poor guy has been beaten worse than Tina Turner, been fed the walking corpses of every member of the NFL Geriatric All-Stars (see messieurs Gore, Frank & Johnson, Andre), and is now so injured that the Colts are starting a 40 year-old NFL QB who was in the hospital 2 days ago. Pop quiz: name the only three active players remaining from the 1998 NFL draft (answer at the bottom).

TAMPA BAY (-3) over Jacksonville

Battle for the championship belt of the worst state in America. Florida, even Alabama is ashamed of you.

Buffalo (-2.5) over TENNESSEE

If you’ve read any of these, you know I have a soft spot for these Buffalo Bills. I don’t know if it’s because my family is from there, I still feel bad about Scott Norwood, or because of that time Rex Ryan told me to ‘play like a fucking Jet’.  All I know is that Rex is an inspiration.

Browns (+6.5) over RAVENS

I’m really starting to think the Ravens might be my gambling kryptonite. I bet on them, they  lose. Bet against them as a double-digit underdog (oh hi Rahim Moore), they win outright. I have no idea. But I don’t think they should be getting more than 3 pts against any team who’s not in the Lingerie Football League.

FALCONS (-7.5) over the Washington Racists

Last week I proclaimed the Falcons the biggest dick-tease in the NFL, as they were going to roll through all the cupcakes in the league on their way to getting pounded in the playoffs. I’m still a believer.

Chicago (+9) over The CHEFS

Alex Smith hasn’t thrown a pass longer than 7 yards since Reagan was president.  As such, they should be giving 9 points to NOBODY. If you like teasing underdogs, holler at Da Bears. Chefs win by four or less.

New Orleans (+4.5) over PHILLY

To anyone wondering if I’d like to bet on either of these teams the rest of the season:

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over St. Louis

Every single piece of evidence I have says this is the wrong pick. The Rams defense is stacked, they’re a physical team that wears you down, they live for close games, they just beat a really good Arizona team at home … and yet, I have to practice what I preach. Ride the Pack until the wheels fall off.

BENGALS (-3) over Seattle

Next up in the ‘sentences I thought I’d never say’ list: the Bengals might be legitimately good. My hatred of Russell Concussion Water Wilson just won’t subside, and I think Jimmy Graham might be dead.

Arizona (-3) over DETROIT

I’m going George Bush on this one and shooting straight from the gut: Arizona – good, Detroit – bad … all despite AZ costing me a small fortune last week. Good times.

DALLAS (+10) over New England

Again, every ounce of me says this is wrong. New England after a bye week, in the midst of their latest ‘F*ck You, I’m Tom Brady‘ tour, against Brandon Weeden … and yet, my obsession with favorites last week has left me gun-shy.  I think Dallas runs it enough to slow it down and keep it semi-respectable.

Broncos (-5) over RAIDERS

I found several different stats I wanted to post here to point to why we’re going to leave Oakland 5-0. I’m also obnoxiously superstitious, so I won’t. I’ll just tell you this game will be involved in 47 different teases. Just win, baby.

GIANTS (-7) over 49ers

Three points at home against an average Green Bay defense? Yeah, I’m going to go ahead and bet against the 9ers for the foreseeable future. (Read: they probably win outright).

Steelers (+3.5) over the CHARGERS

Last week I stumbled upon the greatest possible nickname for Mike Vick – Old Yeller. He used to be loved, he went rabid, and now he needs to be taken out behind the barn. The Steelers were calling touch passes for him on 4th downs, fully disregarding the fact that he couldn’t thrown them when he was good,  and shockingly not converting. I would honestly rather have Tebow quarterbacking my team. But the Chargers are atrocious.

Quiz Result: Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson, Matt Hasselbeck

Last Week: 5 – 9 – 1

Season: 34 – 26 – 2

To all seven of my loyal readers, I have three words for you this week: proceed with caution.  I really, really, really hope we don’t have a pattern here, but we very well might.  Week 1: 12 – 3 – 1. Week 2: 6 – 10. Week 3: 11 – 5. Maybe it’s just a small step on the way back to what I really am – a near .500 gambler.  Or, OR, maybe it’s another brick being paved on my golden road to gambling immortality.  You never know.  Either way, this is how I spent my Sunday & Monday evenings:

Gambling is a fickle bitch.

TEASE OF THE WEEK:

As with the rest of my gambling record this year, the tease of the week is 2-1.  If you heeded my advice and rode the Broncos, Steelers, Packers & Cards, you may have almost recovered from that time I told you to lay a second mortgage on the Rams.  Again, don’t ever listen to me. Except when I’m right. Last week was a bonanza.  This week, the lines are atrocious, but they’re just begging to be teased six ways from Sunday.  Your top contenders would be Steelers, Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Packers, Broncos & Cards.  Have I already laid a six-team teaser? Maybe. Will it win? Absolutely not. But goddamn is it fun to watch that payout multiply every time you add a team.  I’m the very definition of a sucker.

On to the picks. All lines as of 5:00pm PST on Wednesday, as I’m going out of town Thursday night and my editor (me) is demanding I turn this in early (so I can drink wine all weekend).

STEELERS (+3) over Ravens

For those of you scoring at home, the switch from Pig Pen Big Ben to PETA activist Mike Vick was worth a solid seven or eight points.  Steelers hosting the 0-3 Ravens at home with Ben, you’ve got to think they’re -4 or -5.  Sub in Old Yeller, they’re 3pt dogs.  Sorry, the Ravens aren’t good.  Steelers moneyline it is.  And just for fun, some Le’veon Bell highlights.  He’s the best.

MIAMI (+2) over Jets

BOOOOOOOOOOOO. Hate this game. Hate it. Hate it. Hate it. But I feel like it’s one of those ‘our coach is about to get fired, let’s play one coherent game’ games.

COLTS (-9) over Jags

Will someone please call Thoros of Myr to come revive the corpse of Andre Johnson?  He’s a $21 million doughnut.  (If you got that joke, I love you.)

FALCONS (-7) over Texans

After two abysmal seasons, it would seem the Falcons are back to their old ways of being the biggest dick-tease in the NFL – rolling through a horrible division for the joy of getting throttled in the playoffs. Lucky for them, they get the Houston Mallett’s this week. TEASE! TEASE! TEASE!

Panthers (-3.5) over BUCS

Nobody likes hearing about other people’s fantasy teams, but hear me out. I have Aaron Rodgers (more on him later), and took Cam just for trade bait. Just so happens the guy I’m playing this week had Big Ben and was desperate for a QB. So I traded Cam and have to play him the same week. Crane’s Law of Fantasy (anything bad that can happen to my team, WILL happen to my team) says Cam throws for fourteen touchdowns. Just sayin’.

BILLS (-5.5) over Giants

TYROD TAYLOR! SAMMY WATKINS! SHADY! REX RYAN! THE MOTHEFUCKING BUFFALO BILLS Y’ALL!  Hit it Boomer.

Raiders (-3) over BEARS

Remember the South Park episode where they have to choose to vote for the Giant Douche or the Turd Sandwich?  That’s this game.

Eagles (-3.5) over THE WASHINGTON PIGSKINS

Doesn’t matter who they play, I’m picking against the Pigskins until they bring back Black Jesus.  In other news, their fans continue to entertain.

https://twitter.com/HuffPostSports/status/647218677604052992/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

BENGALS (-4.5) over Chefs

I have this obviously ridiculous theory in my head that if I would’ve just dedicated myself, I could’ve been an NFL quarterback.  You want to know what keeps this delusion alive? Alex Smith & his arsenal of screen passes. This line is probably a point and a half too high due to the curb stomping they took Monday night, but there’s a good chance the Chefs are in a Top Gun-esque tailspin they’re not getting out of any time soon.

Browns (+7.5) over CHARGERS

What exactly have the Chargers done to make me believe they can cover more than a touchdown against anybody?  Was it the fact that they let AP take the switch to them last week?  The fact that they’re down three-fifths of their offensive line?  The fact that they’re getting ready to move to Santa Monica next year? FOH Chargers.

Packers (-9.5) over 49ERS

Things Aaron Rodgers has done this year, ranked:

1. Made fun of Russell Wilson for believing god gives a shit about football games (maybe the All-Mighty is a gambler?).
2. Calmly deflected several hot takes saying he’s the MJ of the NFL.
   1. Note: he actually might be.
3. Brought me back from 60 & 37pt deficits in both of my leagues, respectively.
4. Finished off the backend of three separate teases for me.
5. Made me write the sentence below without a hint of irony.

You know that scene in Braveheart where the English lord claims his right to prima nocta, then gets to sleep with the Scottish dude’s wife & sets off Mel’s rebellion?  Well if I was the Scottish dude & Rodgers was the nobleman, not only would I not be mad, I’d probably ask for a photo.  My absolute favorite QB of all-time (non-Elway division). I said it last week & I’m sticking to it – riding the Pack until the wheels fall off.

BRONCOS (-7) over Vikings

The only thing that worries me about this game is which sack dance Von is going to break out after he takes Bridgewater’s lunch money (I know, I know – famous last words).  TEASE! TEASE! TEASE!

CARDS (-7) over Rams

File this under sentences I never thought I’d say: the Arizona Cardinals might be a juggernaut. Tease the shit out of this game.

Dallas (+5.5) over SAINTS

With Tony Romo, the Cowboys are good. With Drew Brees, the Saints are still atrocious. So takeaway the QBs, and the Cowboys are better than the Saints?  Somehow that makes sense in my head. They might win, but it’ll be close.

SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit

If the Lions couldn’t stay within ten of us in Detroit, they got a snowball’s chance in hell of doing it in Seattle.  Yet I still hate this pick, and will not be touching it.

Last Week: 11 – 5 – 0

Season: 29 – 17 – 1

Let’s start this week off with a quick summary of how last week went for me.

In short, it did not go well.  The euphoria of 13-3 (which was actually 12-3-1, thank you to the lone reader I have) may have gone to my head. I had three absolute LOCKS against the spread (Dolphins, Ravens, Rams), and not only did they not cover my ‘Tease Of The Week’, they fucking lost outright.  Shame. In my defense, I saw it coming. To quote myself:

This is about glory.  Oh, who am I kidding, everything is about money, and I’m back in this weekend … meaning, obviously, do NOT follow my picks, because I’m probably going 1-15.

It wasn’t quite 1-15, but 6-10 still my spirits did crush.  I even jumped back on the wagon, re-upped my Sportsbook, and then proceeded to lose back every penny – culminating with Andrew The Giant Luck’s five turnover self-immolation on Monday night.  My only saving grace was going 2-0 in my fantasy leagues – the first time that has happened since the Kennedy administration (related: the sheer fact that I even mentioned that probably means I don’t win another game this season, whatever).

But you know what they say … can’t win if you don’t play.

TEASE OF THE WEEK:

Dealer’s choice, pick two: Steelers, Broncos, Cardinals, Packers. I’ll probably pick all four. God save us.

On to the picks. All lines as of noon PST on Thursday, 9/24.

GIANTS (-3.5) over The Washington Snyders

First up in the holy-shit-was-I-wrong department, the Washington Snyders. So far this season, they’ve publicly crucified the franchise quarterback who they gave up three first round picks for and may end up straight up releasing, had their fans openly rebel against the team (including a maniacally devoted buddy of mine, who when asked about his team texted me ‘fuck them, their racist ass name & their midget owner’), been left for dead after a piss-poor performance in Week 1, then ruined roughly 300 million suicide pools by upsetting the (apparently) equally inept Rams last week. You figure it out.

Steelers (-1.5) over ST. LOUIS

I’ve always kind of liked the Steelers, as long as they weren’t playing the Donkeys. Why?  I don’t know. Maybe because that’s where Kordell Stewart became Slash once upon a time? Yeah, let’s go with that. One more time for the kids, because any excuse is a good excuse to embed this gem.

So back to the Steelers. I don’t think they can really win anything with that dumpster-fire of a defense, but goddamn is their offense awesome (portly, rapey QB aside).  Antonio Brown is a cyborg who looks like a lego, they somehow made Deangelo Williams (DEANGELO WILLIAMS!) into a decent fantasy RB, they get Le’veon Bell back this week & they’re the first team to really embrace the ‘f*ck you, we’re going for 2’ option of the new extra point rules.  Just a joy to watch.

I also told everyone to take out a second mortgage and lay it on the Rams last week. I hope nobody did that.

Chargers (+2.5) over VIKINGS

I was dead wrong about the Vikings last week, but the only full game I’ve seen of either of these teams was when SF embarrassed them on the opening MNF.  Is that a good reason to keep picking against them?  Of course not. Do I care? Not in the least.  Will I learn my lesson if they win again?  Doubtful.  Chargers win outright.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) over TEXANS

In one of my favorite Dave Chapelle skits, he’s being asked what it would take for him to admit it was actually R. Kelly in his infamous sextape. He says he’d need to physically see him in the tape while singing ‘piss on you’, with two forms of government ID, a police officer, and his grandmother there to confirm his identity. What does this have to do with the game?  I’d need all of that shit to ever give 6.5pts to Ryan Mallett. Plus a good excuse to watch the skit. Come back to us Dave.

JETS (-2) over Eagles

Do the Eagles suck? Are the Jets (gasp!) good? These are two of life’s greatest mysteries.  All I know is that I spent $7 of my waiver-wire money on the Jets D, so there’s a solid chance the Eagles drop 50 on ’em.

Saints (+6.5) over PANTHERS

I think its time I, and the rest of America, moved on from our love affair with the Saints. They’re like a girl you had a really awesome weekend with one time who figured out a way to stick around for five years.  They also pooped on my suicide pool last week. Thanks for that. FOH Saints. Conversely, I think I could suit up and immediately be the #1 wideout for Carolina this weekend. They win, but shouldn’t be giving a TD to anyone.

NEW ENGLAND**** (-14) over Jacksonville

I wondered before the season if New England would kind of fall apart after losing 90% of their defense and dealing with deflated balls and Brady’s suspension all offseason, or if they’d unleash the scorched earth policy on everyone. After two weeks, here’s our answer: fuck you, I’m Tom Brady. So I have a theory. In the American cinematic masterpiece Ghostbusters II, all of the ghosts are powered by a pink sludge that only grows stronger from the negative attitudes of New Yorkers. So our heroes combat that by riding the Statue of Liberty around town, pumping Jackie Wilson’s ‘Higher & Higher’ through speakers and generally showering the city with love.  Everyone bashes the Pats constantly, so maybe we start hurling compliments at them & play Jackie Wilson at their road games. It’s worth a shot. Plus, Jackie Wilson is the fucking man.

Bengals (+2.5) over RAVENS

This is my second of three games where I think a 2.5 road dog wins outright. The Ravens’ season exploded around the same time as Terrell Suggs’ achilles, depriving us of my favorite moment in all of the NFL: when he goes straight J’dinkalage Morgoone and intros himself & his alma mater as ‘Sizzle’ & ‘Ball So Hard University’, respectively.

BROWNS (-3.5) over Oakland

So you’re the Cleveland Browns. You’ve been a miserable disgrace of a franchise since rejoining the league in 1999.  Since then, this is your murderer’s row of starting quarterbacks & their respective W/L records:

• Tim Couch / 22-37
• Ty Detmer / 0-2
• Doug Pederson / 1-7
• Spergon Wynn (note: Spergon? Yup, Spergon.) / 0-1
• Kelly Holcomb / 4-8
• Jeff Garcia / 3-7
• Luke McCown / 0-4
• Trent Dilfer / 4-7
• Charlie Frye / 6-13
• Derek Anderson / 16-18
• Brady Quinn / 3-9
• Ken Dorsey / 0-3
• Bruce Gradkowski / 0-1
• Colt McCoy / 6-15
• Jake Delhomme / 2-2
• Seneca Wallace / 1-6
• Brandon Weeden / 5-15
• Thad Lewis / 0-1
• Jason Campbell / 1-7
• Brian Hoyer the Destroyer / 10-6
• Connor Shaw / 0-1
• Johnny Football / 1-2
• Josh McCown / 0-1

Read that list again. Amazing. So their second relationship with a McCown brother looked like it was going to be yet another in a long line of distinguished Browns one-night-stands when ol’ Josh got a concussion and they had to hand the reins to our boy Johnny (related: I’m all-in on Johnny Football.  He might suck at QB, but he’s a total dick and fun to watch, and that’s what really matters). Johnny only completed eight passes last week, but two of them were touchdowns, and they WON. He also fumbled twice, but that’s the whole point with him – you can’t look away. Then they benched him. Isn’t being the somewhat interesting Browns better than just being the Browns? Spergon, man.

Colts (-3.5) over TITANS

So I actually tried out all three teams on my ‘Tease of the Week’ list last week, and got murdered on all of them.  I may have enjoyed an adult beverage or two while said games took place.  All of this may have lead to me letting the remainder of my account ride on a Packers / Colts moneyline parlay. The only concern I had here was the Pack, as they had Seattle, and the Colts were like -350 on MNF. Pack rolled, while the Colts threw feces at their own fans on national TV. I cannot believe I’m still picking them, but it’s hard to see them 0-3, and I’m pretty sure the Titans are turrible.

Falcons (-2) over COWBOYS

Here’s what that old pervert Jerry Jones had to say about his new starting QB:

“This quarterback Weeden can drive the ball downfield,” Jones said, on 105.3 The Fan’s New School show [KRLD-FM], per the Dallas News. “He’s a thing of beauty on throwing the football. His passing motion and his arm, frankly, you won’t see a more gifted passer, power, accuracy, the entire aspect of it.”

‘This quarterback Weeden.’  It sounds like he’s reading a fucking high school scouting report. I bet he thinks his first name is Troy. Repeat after me: I will not gamble on Brandon Weeden. I will not gamble on Brandon Weeden. I will not gamble on Brandon Weeden. I will not gamble on Brandon Weeden. I will not gamble on Brandon Weeden. I will not gamble on Brandon Weeden.

CARDINALS (-6.5) over 49ers

This is part 2 in our 69-part series on why 49ers fans are the worst in the league (last week was their hatred of their own QB): the savages are in the news so often for horrible fights and beatings at their games (see: exhibit A, exhibit B, exhibit C) that the Santa Clara (ha, they don’t even play in SF anymore) city council is trying to ban alcohol after halftime of their games. They’re like a shitty college team whose fans fight because their team sucks and there aren’t any girls at the party.  Also, I think the Cardinals might be really good.

SEATTLE (-15) over Bears

The Bears sucked with Jay Cutler. Without him? Jimmy Clausen? Seattle getting Kam back? In Seattle? They couldn’t make this line high enough.

Bills (+2.5) over DOLPHINS

As promised, the third of my +2.5 road dogs whom I think will win outright.  I know, I know, I know. I picked the Bills to win last week. But that was against Belichek, Brady and the extra-lovable Pats. That was dumb. But that pick I gave you last week?  That pick? It’s nothing. This pick? This pick right here? Probably wrong too.

Denver (-3.5) over LIONS

Come on. After that roller coaster of a game last week? I’m not picking against us until we lose. Also – I really think it’s way more fun to root for a hard-ass defense than a high-flying offense. It just opens up so many more avenues to talk shit. I can’t wait to have twin boys, demand that we name them Von & Aqib, and then get sent immediately to the divorce lawyer’s office.

PACKERS (-7) over Chiefs

Riding the Pack until the wheels fall off.

Last Week: 6 – 10 – 0

Season: 18 – 12 – 1