Last week was an interesting week. Let’s start with a quick recap:
As the whole point of this endeavor was to see how I’d do picking against the spread, I went a stellar 1-3. However, this may be a good time to point out that I almost never actually bet on games by the spread. I’m an absolute sucker for teases & moneyline parlays. I also hadn’t laid a bet since about week 3. That all changed Saturday, watching the KC-HOU game with a few buddies and partaking in a few adult beverages. They both had money on the games, and the jealousy was just too much to bare. I came out of retirement for an absolute lock of a 2-game moneyline parlay. The two games I had absolutely the most confidence in for the weekend: Steelers over AJ McCarron & Seattle over the Vikes. Holy f*cking hell. My coming out party involved two of the most insane finishes in NFL history, and cost me roughly seven years on my life. It came down to Burfict assassinating Antonio Brown on the field and a 90% kicker shanking a 20-yarder. So what did I do? I let every penny ride on a Bama / Donkeys moneyline parlay. I have a problem.
This week? The lines are atrocious. I’m pretty sure I have a read on who’s going to win (i.e: not a goddamn clue), but who knows. This league has become a total crapshoot. The good news? I can’t lose on any of these games, as my whole account is tied up in the Donkeys parlay. The bad news? If the Donkeys lose, my whole account is tied up in the Donkeys parlay. The lesson, as always, I’m an idiot.
TEASE OF THE WEEK:
Last week I advised you to tease all four favorites. I went 3 for 4 after I decided to back Kirk Cousins over Aaron Rodgers, because of course I did. This week? I love Donks teased to -3, Seattle to +8 & AZ to -1 (basically picking a winner). I’ve flip-flopped on the KC/NE game more than I have on Steve Avery’s innocence. You betcha!
On to the lines, all from Sportsbook.com as of 2p MST on Friday.
Chiefs (+5) over CHEATERS
Without a doubt the most confusing game of the week. Everyone in America sees the Chiefs on an 11-game win streak, coming in to face a banged up Pats squad that just pooped their collective pants for two weeks straight. I see the Pats playing possum, getting ready to lay waste to Alex Smith & slice some bacon off of Andy Reid’s back. I think Pats win, but I’m leaning closer to an inch than a mile. Then again, there’s always the possibility of this:
CARDINALS (-7) over Packers
I knew it, I knew it, I fucking knew it. The NFC East was hot trash, and we had Kirk Cousins going up against my hetero life-mate Aaron Rodgers. What did I do? Took the goddamn DC Racists. Not intelligent. However, that was the Racists. This is a juggernaut of a Cardinals squad who beat the Pack by 30 points three weeks ago. Rodgers is an angel, but the Pack is flawed. Unless Carson Palmer blows out his knee between now & Saturday (don’t rule it out), the birds roll.
Seahawks (+2) over PANTHERS
This one hurts. It hurts real bad. I feel like I’m turning my back on family here. This has been, and may very well still be, the year of Cam. To further that point, I traded him from my fantasy team in week 2 because I had ARod, and then lost to him in the finals, and I wasn’t even really that mad. I’ve spent most of the season arguing with friends who think he’s going to flame out, telling them he’s the future. He’s my favorite NFL player (non Von Miller division), and he’s been doing it with Ted ‘Hot Hands’ Ginn Jr (pictured below).
When the Titans got mad about him dancing, he dropped this gem:
“I heard somebody say we aren’t going to allow you to do that, but if you don’t want me to do it, then don’t let me in,” Newton said, via Terry McCormick of Titans Insider. “I just like doing it. It’s not to be boastful. From the crowd’s response, they like seeing it. … No disrespect to anybody, it’s just a Panthers thing.”
- Great point. If you don’t want me dancing, don’t let me score. That’s just good old fashioned logic.
- Of course you meant to be boastful. Otherwise, you’re going straight Christian McCaffrey when you score and simply thanking the Father.
All of this is to say that I think Seattle wins. I picked a Denver – Seattle Super Bowl to start the season, and it’s still in play. And yes, I feel like a shit picking Celibate Wilson over Dab Newton, but it is what it is.
DONKEYS (-7.5) over Steelers
This line went from (-7) this morning, to (-9) when the news on Antonio Brown broke, back down to (-7) and looks like it’s finally settled at (-7.5). At (-9), I had the Steelers. Yes, I think we win (I NEED us to win, both emotionally & financially), but 9 seemed like too much. Even without AB, I figured it would be a decent game. However, I just had two lunch beers, and now I see Donks by at least a TD, so I’ll eat that extra half point. I’ll probably regret it when Manning gets decapitated in the 3rd quarter & I remember that Brock has a sprained MCL and Elway has to stop chain smoking and hitting on teenagers so he can take some snaps. I hate gambling. Go Donkeys.
Wild Card Round: 1 – 3
Season: 65 – 65 – 4
illiterate sports 