DISCLAIMER***: I write all of this from the below balcony in Cabo. My expert analysis might be slightly diluted by the Mexican fire water. It’ll get ‘ya.
Anyway, back to football and gambling. Despite the fact that I know anyone reading this has been a loyal reader all season, I’ll provide the weekly recap of my prior transgressions (it’s been a bit of a roller coaster):
Week 1: 12 – 3 – 1
Week 2: 6 – 10
Week 3: 11 – 5
In full transparency, I may have started drinking my own kool-aid. It was like Vegas was messing with me. Staring me down with a spear. You know what I told Vegas? The same thing any self-respecting man would. I have the reflexes of a cat, and the speed of a mongoose. So go ahead, throw it. And what did they do?
They hit me with the fucking spear. I went 5 – 9 – 1 (I threw out the Colts, as I picked before Andrew the Giant got hurt). It was shaping up to be the year of the favorite, but as always – if it seemed to good to be true, it probably was. It all would’ve been fine if the Cardinals would’ve just won the game. But if if’s and but’s were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas (sigh).
The more important thing to acknowledge here is that if (IF!!!) we have a pattern, then this week is full speed ahead.
TEASE OF THE WEEK:
Last week I tee’d up seven teams to tease, and five of them panned out. Not bad, but also not exactly the ‘tease of the week’. Roll with the Broncos (-5) & Steelers (+3.5). Throw in the Ravens (-6.5) if the Browns continue to ostracize Johnny Football.
On to the picks. Again, all spreads from Sportsbook, as of 4:00pm Cabo San Lucas time Thursday afternoon.
HOUSTON (+1.5) over Indy
You can’t help but feel bad for The Giant. That poor guy has been beaten worse than Tina Turner, been fed the walking corpses of every member of the NFL Geriatric All-Stars (see messieurs Gore, Frank & Johnson, Andre), and is now so injured that the Colts are starting a 40 year-old NFL QB who was in the hospital 2 days ago. Pop quiz: name the only three active players remaining from the 1998 NFL draft (answer at the bottom).
TAMPA BAY (-3) over Jacksonville
Battle for the championship belt of the worst state in America. Florida, even Alabama is ashamed of you.
Buffalo (-2.5) over TENNESSEE
If you’ve read any of these, you know I have a soft spot for these Buffalo Bills. I don’t know if it’s because my family is from there, I still feel bad about Scott Norwood, or because of that time Rex Ryan told me to ‘play like a fucking Jet’. All I know is that Rex is an inspiration.
Browns (+6.5) over RAVENS
I’m really starting to think the Ravens might be my gambling kryptonite. I bet on them, they lose. Bet against them as a double-digit underdog (oh hi Rahim Moore), they win outright. I have no idea. But I don’t think they should be getting more than 3 pts against any team who’s not in the Lingerie Football League.
FALCONS (-7.5) over the Washington Racists
Last week I proclaimed the Falcons the biggest dick-tease in the NFL, as they were going to roll through all the cupcakes in the league on their way to getting pounded in the playoffs. I’m still a believer.
Chicago (+9) over The CHEFS
Alex Smith hasn’t thrown a pass longer than 7 yards since Reagan was president. As such, they should be giving 9 points to NOBODY. If you like teasing underdogs, holler at Da Bears. Chefs win by four or less.
New Orleans (+4.5) over PHILLY
To anyone wondering if I’d like to bet on either of these teams the rest of the season:
GREEN BAY (-9.5) over St. Louis
Every single piece of evidence I have says this is the wrong pick. The Rams defense is stacked, they’re a physical team that wears you down, they live for close games, they just beat a really good Arizona team at home … and yet, I have to practice what I preach. Ride the Pack until the wheels fall off.
BENGALS (-3) over Seattle
Next up in the ‘sentences I thought I’d never say’ list: the Bengals might be legitimately good. My hatred of Russell Concussion Water Wilson just won’t subside, and I think Jimmy Graham might be dead.
Arizona (-3) over DETROIT
I’m going George Bush on this one and shooting straight from the gut: Arizona – good, Detroit – bad … all despite AZ costing me a small fortune last week. Good times.
DALLAS (+10) over New England
Again, every ounce of me says this is wrong. New England after a bye week, in the midst of their latest ‘F*ck You, I’m Tom Brady‘ tour, against Brandon Weeden … and yet, my obsession with favorites last week has left me gun-shy. I think Dallas runs it enough to slow it down and keep it semi-respectable.
Broncos (-5) over RAIDERS
I found several different stats I wanted to post here to point to why we’re going to leave Oakland 5-0. I’m also obnoxiously superstitious, so I won’t. I’ll just tell you this game will be involved in 47 different teases. Just win, baby.
GIANTS (-7) over 49ers
Three points at home against an average Green Bay defense? Yeah, I’m going to go ahead and bet against the 9ers for the foreseeable future. (Read: they probably win outright).
Steelers (+3.5) over the CHARGERS
Last week I stumbled upon the greatest possible nickname for Mike Vick – Old Yeller. He used to be loved, he went rabid, and now he needs to be taken out behind the barn. The Steelers were calling touch passes for him on 4th downs, fully disregarding the fact that he couldn’t thrown them when he was good, and shockingly not converting. I would honestly rather have Tebow quarterbacking my team. But the Chargers are atrocious.
Quiz Result: Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson, Matt Hasselbeck
Last Week: 5 – 9 – 1
Season: 34 – 26 – 2
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