These intro / recaps have become a verifiable rollercoaster of emotions. I’m either Scrooge McDucking my ass around my moneybin, or falling victim to all types of prison rape & hydrogen bombs. It’s a lot to take in week-to-week. What I needed was a nice, steady, under-the-radar comeback. Something to get me back on track without attracting the attention of the feds. So I kept it low-key and banged out a nice 8-5.
Baby steps.
TEASE OF THE WEEK:
I give you four absolute locks here (which obviously means all four fail, but I digress): Lions +10 (Alex Smith couldn’t beat my mom by 10), Vikes +6 (Cutler couldn’t beat your mom by 6), Raiders +9 (Fitzpatrick couldn’t beat his own mom by 9), Panthers -1 (no more mom jokes, the Colts just suck).
With that, on to the picks. Once again, straight from Sportsbook.com as of 5:00pm MST Thursday afternoon.
Miami (+8.5) over PATRIOTS
[Editor’s note: wrote this last night] I’d bet my life that the Pats win this game, but they somehow keep letting every dogshit team they play get backdoor covers in the 4th quarter. It’s infuriating, and I’m pretty sure it’s just Belicheat trolling all of us. He’s the worst.
[Editor’s note: I’ve taken four straight L’s on these Thursday night atrocities.]
Lions (+4) over CHIEFS
This feels like a 14-13 game to me. Even if the Chiefs were on their way to covering, Andy Reid would get distracted by the hotdog guy, call an inadvertent timeout, and let Detroit score a garbage time TD. Either that or Megatron is fumbling at the one yard line. Either way.
Vikings (Pick) over BEARS
Ever since the Vikes got rolled by San Fran on the opening Monday Night of the season, I’ve picked against them every week – and lost. You know what? I’ve had enough. They go into Chicago and light up Smokin’ Jay. Vikes win outright.
Bucs (+7.5) over FALCONS
I love, love, love me some Doug Martin. You know what I don’t love? His weak ass nickname. How is a full-grown American male going to call himself the Muscle Hamster? I just picture fat rodents dancing to shit rap music during Kia commercials. But you know what I read this week? The Dougernaut. Now that, my friends, is a motherfucking nickname. Dougernaut and the Bucs keep this respectable.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Giants
I’m too lazy to go back and check, but pretty sure I’ve been wrong about both of these teams in every game they’ve played this year. I’m taking the home team, but I hate them both, and wouldn’t touch this game with a 50-ft pole.
49ers (+8.5) over RAMS
I know, I know, I know. The 9ers would probably trade Kaepernick for a brisket sandwich and a handshake right about now. The Seahawks just pooped on their chest, in their OWN HOUSE, on national TV. All signs point to a verifiable dumpster fire. And yet, I don’t see the Rame beating a division rival by more than 5 or 6. I’ll eat these words. Whatever. SF friends, cheer up – it’s NBA season. Every time Kaep throws a pick, just watch some Steph highlights.
Cardinals (-6.5) over BROWNS
Every bone in my body says tease the f*ck out of this game. Yet recent history says the Cards have f*cked me out of roughly $1,000 and two suicide pools. I hate gambling.
Bengals (+1.5) over STEELERS (if Ben sits)
Landry Jones is not an NFL quarterback.
STEELERS (-1.5) over Bengals (if Ben plays)
Ben Roethlisberger IS an NFL quarterback.
RAVENS (-3.5) over LA Chargers
Ladies and gentleman, the battle for the #1 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
Titans (+3.5) over TEXANS
To recap, the Texans just: lost by ~700 to the Dolphins, lost their best offensive player to a torn achilles, cut their part-time starter / part-time backup QB because he couldn’t make the team flight and had to ride coach to the game. So they obviously deserve to be favored by 3.5. Derp.
RAIDERS (+3) over Jets
As I’ve mentioned a few times – the Raiders have sucked – I mean really, really SUCKED – for so long, that it’s hard to even dislike them. It’s to the point that I’m even sort of, kind of, somewhat legitimately excited for them to have CARR BOMBS to Amari Cooper. That’s like a real-life football play. He’s a freak, and I’m scared of him. Raiders win outright.
Seahawks (-6.5) over COWBOYS
BREAKING: Dez Bryant had a great day of practice. BREAKING: Matt Cassel is throwing to him. Seahawks win by at least two TDs.
Packers (-3) over BRONCOS
My love affair with Aaron Rodgers has been well chronicled in this space. He’s like a John Elway – Steve Young – Jesus hybrid, and it’s terrifying. Conversely, I love my Donkeys, but I have absolutely zero explanation as to what in the Sam Hell is going on with our offense. Is it Kubiak? I don’t know. I do know that insisting on Peyton running naked bootlegs is about as intelligent as trusting your daughter on prom night. Is it Peyton? I don’t know. I do know that every time he throws a pass, it’s a straight coin flip as to whether it’s going to be a dart or a duck.
I was thinking about all of that, and then I saw this.
BRONCOS (+3) over Packers
Von Miller is the greatest. Orange Crush for life. I apologize.
PANTHERS (-7) over Colts
Ways the Colts have fucked me this year, ranked:
Ruining my tease in week 2
Refusing to pass the ball to Andre Johnson, whom I told anyone who would listen was going to blow up this year.
Tricked me into spending $7 on Ahmad Rashad Bradshaw on my fantasy waiver wire.
As Joey Tribbiani would say: Panthers – good, Colts – bad. And yes, I’m so bad at picks, that I’ve resorted to Friends clips.
Last Week: 8 – 5
Season: 53 – 46 – 4
This year Halloween fell on a weekend, me and Geto Boys were trick-or-treatin.
First, let’s back up. I decided to embark on this little endeavor of picking every game, every week, for two reasons:
Writing is a ton of fun and this gave me a relevant weekly topic about something I already cared about.
I kind of, sort of, actually honestly thought I’d do really well, and thus have it as public record to rub in my friends’ faces.
Turns out, that second reason may turn into one hell of a backfire. 4-9-1 last week, bringing me within four small games of falling below .500 for the first time all year. To try and snap out of this funk, I thought we’d try something new. After I post these each week, I can count on several snarky texts from friends ridiculing my most current masterpiece (dumpster fire). Of those, the most common is my buddy Chris, who for all intents & purposes is the person most responsible for my favorite addiction. So I asked him to write either a rebuttal or an agreement to each of my picks. All of his responses are below in blueitalics, without edit or retort from me. I just gave them a quick glance (because, who gives a shit what he has to say, right?), and it seems as if he’s tried to incorporate some extremely novel ideas here, such as ‘research’ and ‘stats’ and ‘rational thought’. Interested to see how those work out.
But first:
TEASE OF THE WEEK:
Despite the hydrogen bomb that was my week, my TOTW still hit. That’s three weeks in a row, so jump on board America. This week, I offer up the 49ers, Bills & the Lions. Let it eat.
On to the picks. All from Sportsbook as of Wednesday.
49ERS (+6.5) over Seattle
To recap: were it not for a miraculous last-second play by Kam Chancellor against the Lions, the Seahawks would be 1-5, after having lead in the 4th quarter of all five of those losses. Instead, they’re 2-4, while that same stat holds true. Now, I get that Kaepernick is the NFL Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde, but Seattle should be giving 6.5 on the road to a hated division rival because why?
49ERS (+6.5) over Seattle
I should start off by saying I am the one responsible for Crane’s sports gambling degeneracy. I’m like the man who gave Picasso a paintbrush, Mozart a piano, or Walter White a chemistry set. I’m sorry I’m not sorry.
I hate to agree right off the bat but c’mon. Aren’t the Niners just the poor man’s Panthers? Division rival, at home, and you’re giving me 6.5 points in a game where the over / under is 42?! It doesn’t matter if the Niners lose the rest of their games and move to Santa Clara (errr wait), they’ll be hype for this one. Seattle 21 Santa Clara 17.
Bills (-5.5) over JAGS (in London)
You’ve got to love that we claim we want to broaden the appeal of the NFL in England (Europe, really), but continue to do so by sending them the worst possible games on the docket. Nothing says ‘new fan’ like ‘come watch EJ Manuel & Blake Bortles duke it out in the rain’. As to my pick – Jim Kelly himself went to the press this week to ask Rex to unleash the hounds. I think they roll.
Bills (-5.5) over JAGS (in London)
I don’t know what you’re talking about. This game is so good that you can only watch it live streamed on Yahoo. That’s like having the halftime show presented by AOL. 80% of the money is on the Bills, the Bills have numerous difference makers banged up, but you know what? If any team gets shut out this week, it’s the Jags in this game. I’m going against every gambling rule I have and giving the points.
RAMS (-6) over Browns
As of this writing, it’s pretty much dead even between the Rams and the DC Racists on who’s going to fuck me harder this season. As such, and in respect to surefire HOF’er Josh McCown, I will being staying miles & miles away from this game. However, Todd Gurley might be Bo Jackson crossed with a young Biggie Smalls, and I see them covering.
Browns (+6) over RAMS
Fun fact: Joe Haden led NFL jersey sales for a couple weeks this season. Who is buying all the Joe Haden jerseys?! My conspiracy theory: it’s the closest thing you can get to a Lebron James football jersey. Guess what else? Haden’s back this week. Oh and the Rams only scored 10 points against the Redskins.
DOLPHINS (-4.5) over Texans
Remember my first year of sports gambling? It was when I fell in love with the Tajh Boyd / Sammy Watkins / Nuk Hopkins Clemson squad that just kept winning as outright underdogs, made me a fortune, and tricked me into thinking gambling on football was easy. That, as it turns out, was not the truth. Anyway, are we sure Sammy was better than Nuk? I submit exhibit A;
As to the line – I can see either team winning by 20, so I’ll pass, thank you.
Texans (+4.5) over DOLPHINS
I could never forget your love affair with Clemson, or the fact you thought Vince Young would be a viable NFL quarterback, or that JJ Reddick was the second coming of Larry Bird. OR you thought the Dolphins would lose to the Titans straight up. What’s changed? The Texans have only looked bad in their game against the Falcons. Besides Ryan Tannehill is the only QB that can “lose a locker room” of the team that was investigated last year for literally torturing one another. ***Side bet – The curse of Richie Incognito is real. The Dolphins will never win a Super Bowl again.
look at this maniac.
Jets (+9) over PATS
I can’t believe the Pats let some dude named Griff Whalen hit them with the dreaded backdoor cover. Luckily, I didn’t bet a dollar on this game, but I told anyone who would listen that the Pats were winning by 40, and I delivered this message with the zeal of Ray Lewis at a deer antler convention. I may have cost some folks some money, and I apologize. Rooting for the Pats was like rooting for ISIS. Griff fucking Whalen.
Jets (+9) over PATS
I’m actually shocked at how many times we’ve agreed thus far. The Pats are scoring 36.6 ppg. and the Jets are holding opponents to 15 ppg. Classic O vs. D game. I can’t help but think that Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis are alien life forms that were sent here on the sole mission to stop the Patriots WR’s. Nobody stops Gronk but David Harris aint exactly getting’ “thrown out the club” either.
LIONS (+3) over Vikings
I think both of these teams are trash, but it seems like the Lions remembered they can just throw 60 yard bombs to Megatron ten times a game, so I’ll take the home dog ML, especially because I have to root for Stafford in fantasy this week.
Vikings (-3) over LIONS
This is the game that only a true degenerate bets on. Needless to say I’ve already locked in the Vikings -3(even). The Vikings secondary is sneaky good and the Lions biggest weakness? Stopping the run.
Falcons (-5) over TITANS
Well I know you’ve got a perma-chub for Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds, so I’ll just go ahead and agree with you here. Julio could probably play QB and just throw the ball to himself in this game, and they’d still win.
Falcons (-5) over TITANS
Crane well knows the Falcons are the crazy ex-girlfriend I keep coming back to. I quit them for a little while but then all of a sudden they just look so HOT. That and I’m secretly the only person on the planet praying that Marcus Mariota falls flat on his face. #Jameis #Crablegs
Bucs (+3.5) over the RACISTS
I finally decided to believe in the Racists’ ability to cover all spreads last week, so what did they do? Get blown out by Ryan Fitzpatrick. So after a splendid bye-week, my completely indefensible love affair with Jameis & the Muscle Hamster continues. I kind of want to take them ML here. Please talk me out of it.
Bucs (+3.5) over the RACISTS
Did you read my last paragraph? I think the Bucs can hang with any team that won’t force Jamies to throw INT’s and for some reason after seeing what DeAndre Hopkins did to Deangelo Hall on Hard Knocks, I’m thinking Mike Evans might catch a pass or ten.
COLTS (-5) over Saints
The Saints have gotten blown out on the road twice this year by soft teams that air the ball out: 31-19 to AZ & 39-17 to the Eagles. I see that happening again here, especially with the return of Ahmad Rashad Bradshaw, fantasy team savior. And yes, I do realize I’m picking the team that pulled this shit while only down six points at home …
… that elicited this face from the dingus who called the play.
COLTS (-5) over Saints
I bet this game immediately when the line posted. I actually gave 5.5 and still feel good about it. The Falcons were due for a loss and letdowns don’t necessarily come against good teams. The Saints are exactly the kind of squad that lets Stella get her groove back. Especially if Stella is a 6’5’’giant with a neck beard. Not to mention the Saints Defensive Coordinator is the football equivalent of Billy Baldwin.
Raiders (+4) over CHARGERS
Just read a great stat that says the Chargers are playing their third (THIRD!!!) game in 14 days, while the Raiders are coming off of their bye week. Furthermore, the Chargers are not good at football.
Raiders (+4) over CHARGERS
I like the way this Raiders team is headed. The Chargers are the first team in NFL history that has a home field disadvantage and my bold prediction…Woodson picks another and they run the highlight of him flashing the Heisman. Raiders win this game straight up.
GIANTS (-4) over Cowboys
Apparently Dallas is starting Matt Cassel this weekend, so let’s take a moment of silence to acknowledge the three straight weeks we got to bet against Brandon Weeden.
Cowboys (+4) over GIANTS
I don’t care if Jamarcus Russell is starting for the Cowboys after ingesting a full bottle of lean. Tom Coughlin is the first coach to prohibit run plays. The historically potent Giants offense hasn’t shown signs of fireworks since JPP’s 4th of July party. Too soon? Cowboys control the line of scrimmage and lose by a FG.
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Eagles
Last week I said Carolina was essentially Cam, Greg Olsen, and then Cam once more for good measure. They then went out and pretty much beat Seattle by themselves. I love Cam so much. He’s everything I wanted Vince Young to be. Seriously, look how open Olsen is on this game winner. Simmons brought it up this week, but are we sure Seattle’s D is still that hard? I have my suspicions.
Eagles (+3.5) over PANTHERS
Overrated vs. Overachieving and I think you answered your own question. Was the Seattle victory something for the Panthers to hang their hat on? I don’t think so. The Vegas Power Rankings as reported by ESPN have the Panthers tied as the 12th best team in the league. The Eagles? 7th. I’ll take the field goal and a half…actually scratch that let’s ride the money line.
CARDS (-7.5) over Ravens
Baltimore is a few shanked kicks away from being 0-6, and I think a pretty good Cardinals team is out for blood after getting dressed down by the immortal Landry Jones last week. That said, I’ve LOVED the Cards twice this year, and they’ve lost outright both times. You figure it out.
Ravens (+7.5) over CARDS
I can’t figure this Cardinals team out. What’s so good about ‘em? Why is everyone on their jock and how the hell do they keep winning? Their best skill position player is Andre Ellington? Here are three speed ratings in Madden 16. Can you guess the players?
Player A: 83
Player B: 82
Player C: 81
Answers in order: Blaine Gabbert, Larry Fitz, Christian Ponder. If Madden has given up on him then I have too. Cards win this game but I’m not giving more than a TD to Carson Palmer unless I absolutely have to. (Bengals fans nodding solemnly).
Every now and again, it’s important to take a long hard look in the mirror and realize you might need a little gambling timeout. Just a little T-O. During what is now being widely regarded as the Gambling Armageddon of 2015 Week 4 (**editors note: pretty sure it’s just me calling it that, whatever), I lost all but $50 of my SB account because the supposed juggernaut, Super Bowl contending Cardinals of Arizona couldn’t beat the immortal Nick Foles at home. So what did I do? I obviously got bored at work on Monday, opened up the casino feature on SB (**editors note: DON’T EVER, EVER, EVER DO THIS), got that up to about $120, and then promptly ran it down to $0.54 (yes, cents), all in the span of about seven minutes. I really started to think I might be John Anthony, and then I got metaphorically peed on in the park. So yeah, time for a timeout.
Per the usual, all of the games I really liked hit, and I was left to rue my lack of control and unbelievably unhealthy fetish for teasers & parlays. The good news is that I made all my picks from a balcony in Cabo after a full day of an open bar and still went 7 – 6 – 1. The lesson here, as always – all things in moderation.
TEASE OF THE WEEK:
Last week I told you to tease the Broncos & Steelers. I hope you did that. Then I said toss in the Ravens if you were feeling frisky. I hope you were not feeling frisky. This week, it’s the heavy favorites whom I see winning by a combined 1,000 points or so – Packers & Pats, both (-10.5). And again if you’re trying to get loose, throw in the Donkeys at (-4.5).
On to the picks, all from Sportsbook as of 3:00pm PST, Thursday afternoon.
Falcons (-3.5) over SAINTS
Had to re-write what I had here, as I picked the Falcons, and they immediately got blown out. This whole division is trash, and I’m already down 0 – 1 on the week. Sonofabitch.
Broncos (-4.5) over BROWNS
Just watch this clip.
Von Miller is my favorite Bronco since Steve Atwater, and it’s not even particularly close. Seriously. Watch it again. He okie-dokes that lineman so hard it looks like he just passes out, sacks Carr with some sort of flying feet-first death leap, strips and corrals the ball all in one sexual motion, then high-steps his ass off the field like a goddamn high school band leader. Just beautiful. Our offense is obviously still atrocious, but we’re 4 – 1 ATS, and about to break poor Josh McCown into a million tiny pieces. Tease the f*ck out of this game.
Bengals (-3.5) over BILLS
I picked the Bills here originally just by default, as I still can’t get off my attraction to them. Then I took a gander at the injury report and promptly flipped the switch. If Tyrod can’t play, we’re probably looking at EJ Manuel. Furthermore your honor, I actually believe in these Bengals after their comeback on Seattle last week. This obviously means Andy Dalton reminds us all he’s Andy Dalton and the Bills roll. Sigh.
VIKINGS (-4) over Chefs
I was trying to think of a humorous way to discuss the shockingly sad tailspin the Chefs find themselves in, and although it has nothing to do with football, this is what I came up with:
Before Michael Jordan and John Elway, Kit Cloudkicker was legit my childhood idol. That show was dope.
JAGUARS (-1) over Texans
Here’s a fun game – side-by-side stats of a surefire HOF QB and a total punchline:
The first is Blake Bortles. The second is Peyton Manning. Blake fucking Bortles.
Bears (+3) over LIONS
I really wanted to go with Detroit in this one, as it’s hard to picture them going 0 – 6, but then I remembered that last week the Lions decided Dan Orlovsky gave them a better chance than Matthew Stafford. Good luck with that.
The Washington Racists (+6) over JETS
For the life of me, I can’t get a read on the Racists. They’ve ruined suicide pools, fantasy teams, teases, picks, dinners, a graduation, an interview, one wedding and supposedly one presidential election (that I know about). So I’m just going to take my points here.
Cards (-4) over STEELERS**
I like the Cards to cover four here if** Big Ben stays on the sideline. In that scenario, we get an opportunistic Arizona defense ripping Old Yeller to shreds while Le’Veon tries to win the game all by himself. That worked against the hapless Chargers, it won’t work here. If he plays, this maybe goes to a pick-em, in which case I’m staying the f*ck away.
TITANS (-2) over Dolphins
The last two Dolphins anyone gave a shit about were Snowflake and Ray Finkle. What do I know about Ray Finkle?
Carolina (+7) over SEAHAWKS
I believe that Seattle is a much, MUCH better team here. Carolina is 4 – 0, but their opponents are a combined 5 – 20 and their offense consists of Cam, Greg Olsen & Cam once more. Yet, I see this is one of those classic Seattle 13-10 snoozefests.
PACKERS (-10.5) over Chargers
During last Monday’s game when the Chargers were choking away the game to the Steelers, Rivers had to go to a silent count because the Pittsburgh fans were so loud. This was IN San Diego. Good luck in Santa Monica next year fellas. As to the game – can’t stop now, ride the Packers until the wheels fall off.
49ERS (+2.5) over Ravens
So the 49ers take the Giants to the wire in New York, while the Ravens poop their pants and let Josh McCown throw for 457 yards and upset them at home. Obviously, this makes the Ravens road favorites flying all the way to the west coast. 49ers ML all day.
Patriots (-10.5) over COLTS
The latest, and I’d wager greatest, stop on the ‘Fuck You, I’m Tom Brady‘ revenge tour. Obviously nobody on the Colts has seen The Wire, or else they’d know that snitches get stitches. They couldn’t make this line high enough.
Giants (+3.5) over EAGLES
I have absolutely zero read on either of these teams, so I took the Giants because I’ve taken way too many favorites this week. That’s really the only reason. Stay away, stay away, stay away.
DISCLAIMER***: I write all of this from the below balcony in Cabo. My expert analysis might be slightly diluted by the Mexican fire water. It’ll get ‘ya.
Anyway, back to football and gambling. Despite the fact that I know anyone reading this has been a loyal reader all season, I’ll provide the weekly recap of my prior transgressions (it’s been a bit of a roller coaster):
Week 1: 12 – 3 – 1
Week 2: 6 – 10
Week 3: 11 – 5
In full transparency, I may have started drinking my own kool-aid. It was like Vegas was messing with me. Staring me down with a spear. You know what I told Vegas? The same thing any self-respecting man would. I have the reflexes of a cat, and the speed of a mongoose. So go ahead, throw it. And what did they do?
They hit me with the fucking spear. I went 5 – 9 – 1 (I threw out the Colts, as I picked before Andrew the Giant got hurt). It was shaping up to be the year of the favorite, but as always – if it seemed to good to be true, it probably was. It all would’ve been fine if the Cardinals would’ve just won the game. But if if’s and but’s were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas (sigh).
The more important thing to acknowledge here is that if (IF!!!) we have a pattern, then this week is full speed ahead.
TEASE OF THE WEEK:
Last week I tee’d up seven teams to tease, and five of them panned out. Not bad, but also not exactly the ‘tease of the week’. Roll with the Broncos (-5) & Steelers (+3.5). Throw in the Ravens (-6.5) if the Browns continue to ostracize Johnny Football.
On to the picks. Again, all spreads from Sportsbook, as of 4:00pm Cabo San Lucas time Thursday afternoon.
HOUSTON (+1.5) over Indy
You can’t help but feel bad for The Giant. That poor guy has been beaten worse than Tina Turner, been fed the walking corpses of every member of the NFL Geriatric All-Stars (see messieurs Gore, Frank & Johnson, Andre), and is now so injured that the Colts are starting a 40 year-old NFL QB who was in the hospital 2 days ago. Pop quiz: name the only three active players remaining from the 1998 NFL draft (answer at the bottom).
TAMPA BAY (-3) over Jacksonville
Battle for the championship belt of the worst state in America. Florida, even Alabama is ashamed of you.
Buffalo (-2.5) over TENNESSEE
If you’ve read any of these, you know I have a soft spot for these Buffalo Bills. I don’t know if it’s because my family is from there, I still feel bad about Scott Norwood, or because of that time Rex Ryan told me to ‘play like a fucking Jet’. All I know is that Rex is an inspiration.
Browns (+6.5) over RAVENS
I’m really starting to think the Ravens might be my gambling kryptonite. I bet on them, they lose. Bet against them as a double-digit underdog (oh hi Rahim Moore), they win outright. I have no idea. But I don’t think they should be getting more than 3 pts against any team who’s not in the Lingerie Football League.
FALCONS (-7.5) over the Washington Racists
Last week I proclaimed the Falcons the biggest dick-tease in the NFL, as they were going to roll through all the cupcakes in the league on their way to getting pounded in the playoffs. I’m still a believer.
Chicago (+9) over The CHEFS
Alex Smith hasn’t thrown a pass longer than 7 yards since Reagan was president. As such, they should be giving 9 points to NOBODY. If you like teasing underdogs, holler at Da Bears. Chefs win by four or less.
New Orleans (+4.5) over PHILLY
To anyone wondering if I’d like to bet on either of these teams the rest of the season:
GREEN BAY (-9.5) over St. Louis
Every single piece of evidence I have says this is the wrong pick. The Rams defense is stacked, they’re a physical team that wears you down, they live for close games, they just beat a really good Arizona team at home … and yet, I have to practice what I preach. Ride the Pack until the wheels fall off.
BENGALS (-3) over Seattle
Next up in the ‘sentences I thought I’d never say’ list: the Bengals might be legitimately good. My hatred of Russell Concussion Water Wilson just won’t subside, and I think Jimmy Graham might be dead.
Arizona (-3) over DETROIT
I’m going George Bush on this one and shooting straight from the gut: Arizona – good, Detroit – bad … all despite AZ costing me a small fortune last week. Good times.
DALLAS (+10) over New England
Again, every ounce of me says this is wrong. New England after a bye week, in the midst of their latest ‘F*ck You, I’m Tom Brady‘ tour, against Brandon Weeden … and yet, my obsession with favorites last week has left me gun-shy. I think Dallas runs it enough to slow it down and keep it semi-respectable.
Broncos (-5) over RAIDERS
I found several different stats I wanted to post here to point to why we’re going to leave Oakland 5-0. I’m also obnoxiously superstitious, so I won’t. I’ll just tell you this game will be involved in 47 different teases. Just win, baby.
GIANTS (-7) over 49ers
Three points at home against an average Green Bay defense? Yeah, I’m going to go ahead and bet against the 9ers for the foreseeable future. (Read: they probably win outright).
Steelers (+3.5) over the CHARGERS
Last week I stumbled upon the greatest possible nickname for Mike Vick – Old Yeller. He used to be loved, he went rabid, and now he needs to be taken out behind the barn. The Steelers were calling touch passes for him on 4th downs, fully disregarding the fact that he couldn’t thrown them when he was good, and shockingly not converting. I would honestly rather have Tebow quarterbacking my team. But the Chargers are atrocious.
Quiz Result: Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson, Matt Hasselbeck
To all seven of my loyal readers, I have three words for you this week: proceed with caution. I really, really, really hope we don’t have a pattern here, but we very well might. Week 1: 12 – 3 – 1. Week 2: 6 – 10. Week 3: 11 – 5. Maybe it’s just a small step on the way back to what I really am – a near .500 gambler. Or, OR, maybe it’s another brick being paved on my golden road to gambling immortality. You never know. Either way, this is how I spent my Sunday & Monday evenings:
Gambling is a fickle bitch.
TEASE OF THE WEEK:
As with the rest of my gambling record this year, the tease of the week is 2-1. If you heeded my advice and rode the Broncos, Steelers, Packers & Cards, you may have almost recovered from that time I told you to lay a second mortgage on the Rams. Again, don’t ever listen to me. Except when I’m right. Last week was a bonanza. This week, the lines are atrocious, but they’re just begging to be teased six ways from Sunday. Your top contenders would be Steelers, Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Packers, Broncos & Cards. Have I already laid a six-team teaser? Maybe. Will it win? Absolutely not. But goddamn is it fun to watch that payout multiply every time you add a team. I’m the very definition of a sucker.
On to the picks. All lines as of 5:00pm PST on Wednesday, as I’m going out of town Thursday night and my editor (me) is demanding I turn this in early (so I can drink wine all weekend).
STEELERS (+3) over Ravens
For those of you scoring at home, the switch from Pig Pen Big Ben to PETA activist Mike Vick was worth a solid seven or eight points. Steelers hosting the 0-3 Ravens at home with Ben, you’ve got to think they’re -4 or -5. Sub in Old Yeller, they’re 3pt dogs. Sorry, the Ravens aren’t good. Steelers moneyline it is. And just for fun, some Le’veon Bell highlights. He’s the best.
MIAMI (+2) over Jets
BOOOOOOOOOOOO. Hate this game. Hate it. Hate it. Hate it. But I feel like it’s one of those ‘our coach is about to get fired, let’s play one coherent game’ games.
COLTS (-9) over Jags
Will someone please call Thoros of Myr to come revive the corpse of Andre Johnson? He’s a $21 million doughnut. (If you got that joke, I love you.)
FALCONS (-7) over Texans
After two abysmal seasons, it would seem the Falcons are back to their old ways of being the biggest dick-tease in the NFL – rolling through a horrible division for the joy of getting throttled in the playoffs. Lucky for them, they get the Houston Mallett’s this week. TEASE! TEASE! TEASE!
Panthers (-3.5) over BUCS
Nobody likes hearing about other people’s fantasy teams, but hear me out. I have Aaron Rodgers (more on him later), and took Cam just for trade bait. Just so happens the guy I’m playing this week had Big Ben and was desperate for a QB. So I traded Cam and have to play him the same week. Crane’s Law of Fantasy (anything bad that can happen to my team, WILL happen to my team) says Cam throws for fourteen touchdowns. Just sayin’.
BILLS (-5.5) over Giants
TYROD TAYLOR! SAMMY WATKINS! SHADY! REX RYAN! THE MOTHEFUCKING BUFFALO BILLS Y’ALL! Hit it Boomer.
Raiders (-3) over BEARS
Remember the South Park episode where they have to choose to vote for the Giant Douche or the Turd Sandwich? That’s this game.
Eagles (-3.5) over THE WASHINGTON PIGSKINS
Doesn’t matter who they play, I’m picking against the Pigskins until they bring back Black Jesus. In other news, their fans continue to entertain.
I have this obviously ridiculous theory in my head that if I would’ve just dedicated myself, I could’ve been an NFL quarterback. You want to know what keeps this delusion alive? Alex Smith & his arsenal of screen passes. This line is probably a point and a half too high due to the curb stomping they took Monday night, but there’s a good chance the Chefs are in a Top Gun-esque tailspin they’re not getting out of any time soon.
Browns (+7.5) over CHARGERS
What exactly have the Chargers done to make me believe they can cover more than a touchdown against anybody? Was it the fact that they let AP take the switch to them last week? The fact that they’re down three-fifths of their offensive line? The fact that they’re getting ready to move to Santa Monica next year? FOH Chargers.
Packers (-9.5) over 49ERS
Things Aaron Rodgers has done this year, ranked:
Made fun of Russell Wilson for believing god gives a shit about football games (maybe the All-Mighty is a gambler?).
Calmly deflected several hot takes saying he’s the MJ of the NFL.
Note: he actually might be.
Brought me back from 60 & 37pt deficits in both of my leagues, respectively.
Finished off the backend of three separate teases for me.
Made me write the sentence below without a hint of irony.
You know that scene in Braveheart where the English lord claims his right to prima nocta, then gets to sleep with the Scottish dude’s wife & sets off Mel’s rebellion? Well if I was the Scottish dude & Rodgers was the nobleman, not only would I not be mad, I’d probably ask for a photo. My absolute favorite QB of all-time (non-Elway division). I said it last week & I’m sticking to it – riding the Pack until the wheels fall off.
BRONCOS (-7) over Vikings
The only thing that worries me about this game is which sack dance Von is going to break out after he takes Bridgewater’s lunch money (I know, I know – famous last words). TEASE! TEASE! TEASE!
CARDS (-7) over Rams
File this under sentences I never thought I’d say: the Arizona Cardinals might be a juggernaut. Tease the shit out of this game.
Dallas (+5.5) over SAINTS
With Tony Romo, the Cowboys are good. With Drew Brees, the Saints are still atrocious. So takeaway the QBs, and the Cowboys are better than the Saints? Somehow that makes sense in my head. They might win, but it’ll be close.
SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit
If the Lions couldn’t stay within ten of us in Detroit, they got a snowball’s chance in hell of doing it in Seattle. Yet I still hate this pick, and will not be touching it.
illiterate sports 